Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 261047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
446 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will remain in place over southern...central
and eastern Utah today. Drier air will gradually spread into
the area from the north over the weekend and into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)...A few lingering showers remain in
place across portions of southeast Utah as a shortwave trough slowly
exits the area. However...a second trough is noted upstream over the
Columbia Basin. This trough will carve into northern Utah this
afternoon. A moist airmass remains in place across southern and
portions of central Utah where PWATs are in the 0.75-0.9in range,
while values are under a half inch across the far north.
As the trough approaches Utah, expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop again by late morning or early afternoon. Because the north
is expected to moisten a bit more today, showers across the northern
mountains could trend a bit higher in areal coverage. The trough
will become elongated late this afternoon and evening and merge with
another weak system over Nevada. This is then progged to dive south
and eventually turn into a closed low over Lake Mead tomorrow
evening. This trend should start focusing energy back towards
southwest Utah so lingering showers are expected there overnight.
The airmass will begin to dry from the north tomorrow but the upper
low will continue to keep moisture over southern Utah. As the low
tracks eastward across Arizona on Sunday, the airmass will
then gradually start to dry from west to east.
.LONG TERM (After 18Z Monday)...Ridging will be in place to start
the long term forecast period. An upper level trough will approach
the Pacific Coast early Tuesday gradually weakening as it crosses
the northern Sierras.
Ahead of this trough, moisture will begin to be pulled northward,
first into southeastern Utah Tuesday gradually pushing into central
and northern Utah Wednesday into Thursday. Given weak dynamics,
expect much of the convection to be tied to the higher terrain and
adjacent valleys Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the long
term forecast period.
.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC terminal are expected to
shift to the northwest between 19-20Z. There is a 10 percent chance
gusty and erratic outflow winds will impact the terminal between 19-
.FIRE WEATHER...A moist airmass remains in place across much of
southern, central and northeast Utah today as another trough crosses
the area. Expect isolated to scattered generally wet storms with the
bulk of these across the spine of Utah and eastern valleys this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms are expected to linger through the
night focusing on southern Utah. The airmass will begin to dry from
the north on Saturday confining showers to the central and south.
This drying trend will continue through the early part of next week
before moisture begins to spread back into the area late Tuesday or
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