Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 202120
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE THEN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT
AND NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. GIVEN INCREASING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECT TO SEE ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF SALT LAKE
CITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A BUILDING RIDGE WILL DRY THINGS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION TO BE RELEGATED TO NORTHEAST ZONES MONDAY...ENDING
MONDAY EVENING. MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

EUROPEAN AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING ON PINNING DOWN TIMING WITH DIFFERING TROUGH EVOLUTIONS
TO THE WEST. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP
LATE WEEK WITH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION....LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSLC
THROUGHOUT AROUND 03-04Z THEN TURN SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT LATER. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...PROMPTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT AND NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS A
WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING MORE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER...RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION LINGERS MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...DECAYING FOR GOOD MONDAY EVENING.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.

THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOPING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER/ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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