Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 272236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
436 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Several weak disturbances will cross the region
through the first part of next week.
.SHORT TERM (Thru 06Z Tuesday)...An upper trof is moving into the
nrn Rockies this aftn with a difluent west to northwesterly flow
over the eastern Great Basin. Scattered mainly terrain based
convection has developed today. The best coverage is over the
north under increasing upper support associated with the trof to
our north and an approaching cold front.
The convection will tend to diminish most areas this eve with the
loss of daytime heating but will stay scattered over the north
through the evening in the vicinity of this frontal boundary
associated with the passing upper trof. Forcing for any convection
wanes after midnight as the trof continues to slide east and the
front begins to stall out.
The front ends up stalled across central Ut tomorrow morning and
the somewhat cooler and more stable airmass to its north should
suppress convection across the nrn CWA thru tomorrow aftn. The
areas south of this boundary should have another round of mainly
aftn terrain based convection.
Expect a return of isolated convection to the north overnight Sat
night and area wide Sun as the flow backs around again to
southerly/southwesterly ahead of a closed low over srn CA.
This low tracks slowly east thru Sun night and convection could
actually increase Sun night as yet another nrn branch trof moves
past to our north, phasing with the Ca low, and pushing another
cold front into the nrn CWA. This front plus the passage of the
srn branch low looks to shut down convection over the west in its
wake Mon aftn but a weak trailing wave could keep a few cells
active over the nrn mtns in the aftn and over the south and east
into the evening.
.LONG TERM (After 06Z Tuesday)...The last storm system in the
series is expected to impact the area Monday night into Tuesday.
12Z GFS indicates this system passes through northeast Utah and
southwest Wyoming, bringing a bit of moisture and instability.
However, in the latest ECMWF the system stays north of the area.
Have kept some token POPs in to account for the GFS solution.
All models indicate strong high pressure building back into the
area beginning Wednesday, resulting in a significant warming and
drying trend through day 7. Maxes on Friday are progged to run at
least 10F above seasonal norms. ECMWF shows a Pacific trough
breaking down the ridge after day 7, while the GFS keeps high
pressure firmly in place.
.FIRE WEATHER...A series of weak storm systems will move through
the fire district this weekend and early next week, keeping
unsettled conditions around with a warming trend in temperatures.
One system will graze northern Utah tonight into early tomorrow,
with a second taking a similar path on Monday. As the Monday
system moves through, a second system will cross Arizona, bringing
additional instability to primarily southern Utah. High pressure
will follow for the middle of the upcoming week.
.AVIATION...Variable winds are expected to become predominately
southerly at the SLC Terminal between 00-02Z. Through about
03Z...There is a 20 percent chance of gusty and erratic winds due
to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah.
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
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