Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 131142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
442 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBOUND
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN HAS COLLAPSED AND SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES BEGIN TO CROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES. THE FOG AND STRATUS DOES REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING PER OBSERVATIONS AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED IT
FROM SATELLITE VIEW. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN SEEMS TO BE ACROSS UTAH CO AND HAVE REISSUED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 900 AM.

THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIP
TO THE CWA BUT THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER
THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS AFTN.
INCREASING 700 MB FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD STIR THE
INVERSIONS AND MAY ERODE THE EDGES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NV BORDER
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE TODAY.

THE NEXT WAVE IS A LITTLE COLDER AND MORE MOIST BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NRN CWA SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION
OF THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IS EXPECTED BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MIX OUT. ANY PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE RAIN BUT
LINGERING TRAPPED COLD AIR COULD KEEP IT AS SNOW PARTICULARLY IN
THE CACHE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF WARM AIR
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND WAVE KEEPS CLOUDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NRN CWA THRU SUN NIGHT THEN THEY GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE MON. THIS NIGHTTIME CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROVIDE THE FINAL
PUSH TO CLEAR OUT THE INVERSIONS AND DO EXPECT THEM TO PRETTY MUCH
MIX OUT BY MON AFTN. RIDGING RETURNING TO THE CWA WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR MON NIGHT WITH SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS
REDEVELOPING BUT DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AS
WE SHOULD BE STARTING BASICALLY WITH A FRESH AIRMASS. THE RIDGE
NEARS THE WESTERN UT BORDER TUE AFTN AND EXPECT TUE TO BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY MILD DAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
BASIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER OF THE MODELS BUT ALSO PORTRAYS A
SPLITTING TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEAST WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
A MORE ZONAL APPROACH THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...A SHARP COLD AIR GRADIENT
MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH FAIRLY STRONG 700MB SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL...EXPECTING PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH 21Z TO 22Z TODAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
VISIBILITIES WILL NOT IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ004.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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