Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270937
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...AS A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHERN UT TO SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD...EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT MAY CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD I-80 BY
BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE 100F
MARK ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE MONDAY TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK...BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THIS
MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH TODAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COVER
ALL OF THE STATE BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST DESERTS WHILE SCATTERED
WETTER STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE FOR MONDAY COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPAWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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