Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140309
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
909 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NV THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CA HAS GENERATED A SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AND CENTRAL UT AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW BROUGHT A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO SRN UT TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMED
OVER THE SRN MTNS. THIS LIKELY DID NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT BEST.

THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST SUN AND MON THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD TUE KEEPING A WARM BUT FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A LITTLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
ALTHO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING MOISTURE IN
PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEW NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
RIDGE STARTING TOMORROW INTO MON WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE
STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF IT UNTIL WED. THE GFS
STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUE BUT KEEPS IT
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR CWA TIL LATER WED.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE SURGING NWD THU AND
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRI. THE EC HOWEVER FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OUT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN PAC TROF ON TUE THAT IT
PARKS ALONG THE CA COAST THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TOO SPREADS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED
NIGHT/THU BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE ACTUAL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA INTO MON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN THU INTO FRI WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY...AND POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
OCCUR THU INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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