Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 251200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
500 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather will cross the area this afternoon and
overnight. Yet another cold storm is on tap for the first part of
next week.


.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...A near zonal flow is in place
over the forecast area this morning as Utah remains in between two
storm systems. Weak midlevel warm advection will occur through
midafternoon, but 700mb temperatures will only warm around 1-2C for
most areas. With SLC starting at close to -16C this morning, the
airmass will remain rather cold.

The upstream trough is becoming increasingly split and is currently
taking the form of an elongated trough extending from the southwest
Oregon coast through Saskatchewan. As a result, it will continue to
lose energy as the trough axis crosses Utah this afternoon and
overnight. In addition, moisture will be limited, so precipitation
is not expected to be significant for most areas. That being said,
expect few light snow showers mainly this afternoon and evening
across the north. Farther south, precipitation is expected to become
more focused across central and then southern Utah this evening and
overnight as low-level convergence increases there along a
tightening boundary.

A low-amplitude shortwave ridge is expected to build into the area
on Sunday as the trough exits the area. Warm advection will develop
once again, but the next storm system will quickly approach the area
so the airmass will not have a chance to warm significantly. This
next storm system will be a broader trough with a couple of embedded
shortwave disturbances, the first of which will cross the area
Sunday night into Monday and the second on Tuesday. This will keep a
cold and unsettled airmass in place with accumulating snow expected
down to many valleys.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...The trough axis pushes east of
the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with clearing
skies through the night. Because of this clearing and the lingering
cold airmass, Wednesday morning will likely be the coldest morning
of the week in many locations. That said, some cloud cover could
still persist into Wednesday across the northern half of the CWA, as
could some isolated mountain snow showers.

With the ridge centered off the west coast through the day
Wednesday, a stable northwest flow develops over the area, with a
modest warming trend. This warming accelerates for Thursday and
Friday, as the ridge shifts more overhead, and temperatures will
likely exceed climatological normals by the end of the work week.

The challenge heading into the weekend will be tracking a cold
trough that pushes into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At the
moment, this trough looks to largely remain north of Utah, though
the GFS does have shallow low level cold air push into the state on
Saturday, as the bulk of the trough moves through Montana. This
large feature will be worth keeping an eye on, though a plunge back
into the deep freeze looks unlikely for Utah at this time.


.AVIATION...There is a 30 percent chance of ceilings below 7000 feet
at the SLC terminal through 15Z, as isolated snow showers wander
around the Great Salt Lake. Winds will likely switch to the
northwest between 19Z and 22Z, though there is a slight chance that
winds simply remain southerly through the day.





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