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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172107
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
307 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. LEADING EDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INLAND AT THIS TIME. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO WEDNESDAY. VIRTUALLY
NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW ANY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE RAFT RIVER
MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH UINTAS WHERE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT BEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
TONGUE OF AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AROUND THE LOW. REMOVED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR WYOMING PER REQUEST FROM RIVERTON FIRE
WEATHER.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...EXPECT EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH BEFORE TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH. THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
REBUILDS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH LOOK TO GRADUALLY
REBOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
BASICALLY...MORE OF THE SAME...WITH A DRY AND VERY WARM AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z...THOUGH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RUNWAYS THROUGH 22Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEARLY DISTRICT-WIDE TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.

GIVEN THE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL
ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. IF ADDITIONAL ZONES BECOME CRITICAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEY WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     7000 FEET FOR UTZ488-489-493-494.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
     6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ497-498.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AVIATION.......SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)