Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091709
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1109 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL PUMP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE OF UTAH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRYING TREND
FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO
SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.0 INCH FOR
JUST ABOUT ALL OF UTAH...WHILE SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAINS IN THE
0.7 TO 0.8 INCH RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...SO STORM MOTION WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
ELEVATED...BUT FEEL THE THREAT IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD RELATED HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE A BIT EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE STATE. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
PER THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THAT...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER TOMORROW...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...COMPARED TO TODAY.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY...AND THIS WOULD CAUSE
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH RESPECT TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE IS 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF UTAH. WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH WETTING RAINS REMAINING LIKELY.  A
DRYING TREND OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN DURING
THIS TIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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