Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 232051
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
251 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A storm system from the Pacific Northwest to the
California coast will slide eastward across the Great Basin as the
workweek progresses, providing mild, but unsettled conditions. A
second storm system may impact the region Memorial Day
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...
Water Vapor loop shows an expansive trough firmly in place across
the Western CONUS. One embedded wave is currently crossing Central
Utah while the next one off the Pacific coast will approach the West
Coast tonight. AMDAR 400-200MB wind observations place a 80-120kt
cyclonic jet from the Eastern Pacific across the Desert Southwest
and into the Upper Midwest. GOES/HRRR/12Z KSLC RAOB indicate the
precipitable water value ranges from 0.10"-0.20" Southwest Valleys
and mountains to 0.30"-0.50" most valleys.
Isolated to scattered convection across Northern Utah and Southwest
Wyoming will tend to gradually decay with loss of diurnal
warming, as shortwave ridging builds into the area tonight.
Tomorrow destabilization takes place similar fashion to today, as
with diffluence aloft increasing ahead of the upstream Pacific
wave we should be in line to see isolated to scattered convection
across the North, and expanded into the Central Mountains.
Closed low feature crosses Southern Nevada Wednesday with
deformation zone setting up over much of western Utah. Therefore
bumped pops up higher to account for the added dynamics with some
instability in place. Expanded POPs further southwest into Cedar
City and Bryce. Snow levels should range from 8000 to 9000 ft.
.LONG TERM(AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...Models in general agreement in
opening up Upper low over far southern California as system slides
eastward. Timing differences do exist, with NAM offering a
compromise solution between faster GFS and slower ECMWF solution.
Though models suggest only modest upward forcing...deepest
moisture in place for Thursday, so have opted for precipitation
chances across forecast area.
While trough will slide east of forecast area on Friday, enough
residual moisture and instability will be in place to provide a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Another upper level system will pivot through the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies over the course of the week. While
the bulk of energy with this system will remain north of the
region, models suggest moisture in association with this system
will spread into Great Basin, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms primarily across northern half of forecast area.
.FIRE WEATHER...For the rest of today and tomorrow expect more
sunshine low RH and warm temperatures across the South as
Southwest winds pick up. The North will see higher RH and more
clouds with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but
still mild conditions. Snow Levels look to range 8000 to 9000 ft.
A storm system looks to take aim on the region Wednesday into
Friday. The biggest expected changes will be the extent of
convection should cover the entire region with more moist conditions
resulting across the south as a result. Initial convection could see
a high risk of gusty/erratic winds due to dry microbursts. With a
cold frontal passage Wednesday and Wednesday night Northwest flow
will become predominate. Temperatures and snow levels should remain
fairly steady through the week.
.AVIATION...For the SLC terminal expecting VFR conditions through
the evening. Scattered clouds hugging the terrain should remain at
or above 8000k feet through the evening hours. Light northerly winds
are expected to switch to a southerly heading after 03z this
evening. Any shower or thunderstorm activity this evening only has a
20 percent chance of impacting the terminal. Winds will pick up in
strength around 17z Tuesday with an approaching trough feature.
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