Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 301026
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
426 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS
A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SOME FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD LESS HOT TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT WE ARE ONLY TALKING A
COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE FLEETING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY TURNING THE FLOW NORTHWEST OVER UTAH WHICH
WILL BE A DRY FLOW. PWS WILL LOWER BELOW 0.50 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH BY LATE THURSDAY WITH 0.75 OF AN INCH REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...OWING TO THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY. EXCELLENT SOLAR INSOLATION DUE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND H7 TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 18-20C RANGE WOULD
INDICATE A VERY WARM AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN.

GRADUAL EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE RIDGE WILL PUT IT OVERHEAD FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST. RESULT WOULD BE FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO NEAR OR EXCEED
100F FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF UTAH BY SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL START TO IMPACT
THE AREA. AN INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT THE SLC
TERMINAL AROUND 18Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 20
PERCENT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT FROM WESTERLY EARLY TODAY TO
NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TAIL OF THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY. THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BE A
DRY FLOW WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. MINIMUM RHS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND
MOST AREAS VALLEYS THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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