Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 262201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL IMPACT MOST OF UTAH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TIL 06Z SAT)...A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER ERN WA THIS
AFTN WITH A W-SW FLOW OVER OUR CWA. ABUNDANT AIRMASS MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE AND A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

THE WAVE IS OVER ERN NV AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS UT OVERNIGHT
KEEPING CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE CWA THRU THE EVE WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THU WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE LOW KICKING OFF CONVECTION
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH TOMORROW INTO THU. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A PEAK IN THE ACTIVITY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES.

THE SRN CWA DRIES A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT AND WED BUT BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AGAIN ON THU WITH THE TROF AXIS.

CONVECTION FRIDAY SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS IN THE NWLY FLOW AS THE
TROF SHIFTS EAST BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE REGION IN EARNEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE AREA
TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST PERIOD IN QUITE A WHILE FOR THE STATE OF UTAH.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH...USHERING IN THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THESE
DAYS...LEANING MOSTLY TOWARD THE MEX AND OTHER EXTENDED MOS
PRODUCTS...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT OR THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY FOR ST. GEORGE.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER
NORTHWEST UTAH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE COOLING
TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED FOR MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THIS FRONT COULD ALSO INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY. THE GFS
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT...KEEPING THE TROUGH RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE AND PUTTING THE REGION UNDER WARM HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z EC HAS COME UP WITH AN EXTENDED
SOLUTION THAT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY WEATHER
PATTERN...STALLING THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND PUTTING NORTHERN
UTAH BACK INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. NO MAJOR PREFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AT THE MOMENT...AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS BEGIN
TO CONVERGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EVERY DAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH...BUT SOUTHERN UTAH WILL STILL SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FINALLY EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ALTHOUGH NEARBY SHOWERS WILL
TEMPORARILY SHIFT THE WINDS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 2330Z AND 0100Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 4K AND 5K AGL IN THIS BAND WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF VSBY LOWERING BELOW P6SM. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AFTER 03-04Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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