Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 222204
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
MARCHING THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH AS OF 22Z...WITH WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 55 MPH BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z...WITH A
CHANCE TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE MOST POPULATED PART OF THE
CWA...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY UNDERACHIEVED SO FAR DUE TO
THICK CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SOME OF THESE
CELLS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THAN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO
OBSERVATIONS OF THESE STRONGER WINDS YET IN OUR CWA.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW COULD EVEN DROP DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT RIGHT NOW ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE HARD FREEZE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND FOR
THURSDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REACHING FAR NORTHWEST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES BY THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH GFS CONTINUES TO BE A
BIT FASTER AND A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE CWA. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A BIT SLOWER IN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS THEN MOVES THE TROUGH RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST INTO COLORADO BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER UTAH BY THIS
TIME PERIOD. EITHER WAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVERTAKES AND REMAINS
OVER UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING...BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE SYSTEM WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH
AND THE BEGINNINGS OF RIDGING. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
DIMINISH...POPS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST INTO MONDAY...BEING
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG RIDGE SETS UP FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 23Z
AND 01Z. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTH.


&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ001-006>010-013-
     019>021-517-518.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ002>005-
     014>016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ011-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...YOUNG
AVIATION...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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