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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211603
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK...KEEPING MOST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING IN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MID THROUGH LATE WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED
LOWS SPINNING OVER THE PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD.

THIS WARMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL LINGERING NEAR 0.5 INCHES. THAT SAID...SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS THE LOW STALLS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT STILL OCCASIONALLY SENDS LOWER LEVEL COLD
AIR INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PUSHES...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING.



&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY. PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. A STORM SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MAINTAIN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS WEEK.
WEATHER DISTURBANCES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLDER SYSTEM THURSDAY. NEITHER FRONT WILL OFFER UP
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THOUGH TEMPS
WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FIRE DISTRICTS LOOK TO REMAIN WARM...BREEZY AND DRY MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WIND AND LOW RH
VALUES COULD CREEP UP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS FUELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)