Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 032206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN PUSH A FALL COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)...A DEEPENING TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAINING IN A PERSISTENT WARM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST UTAH...WHERE A WEAK VORTICITY MAX IS SLIDING THROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...BUT HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...WITH 700MB
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES
NORTHERN UTAH. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...AND THAT IS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD BE A TAD STRONGER ON WINDS...THOUGH IT MAY STILL BE JUST A
HIGH END ADVISORY EVENT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WITH A TIGHT
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WINDS MAY ALSO BE STRONG JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWESTERN
UTAH AND ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
MENTIONED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW...AS
THAT IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TAP WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE GOOD LOW LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PRODUCE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED DECENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EVEN
INCREASED THEM ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER...AS THIS AREA IS THE
MOST LIKELY TO GET A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SUNDAY)...WINDS SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...HOWEVER POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENHANCED
NEAR THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN...CASTLE COUNTRY...AND OUTLYING
SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNTIL A SECONDARY
COOL FRONT TUESDAY...BRINING A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
ARIZONA BORDER BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. THE CANADIAN OFFERED AN INTERESTING
SOLUTION DEEPENING A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEHIND TROPICAL STORM KEVIN
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID WEEK...THOUGH THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS UTAH OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH. COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS
EVENT IS STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGE WIND EVENT...A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL UTAH FIRE ZONES BORDERING NEVADA...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICAL AT THE MOMENT.

THIS STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS UTAH ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
     UTZ478-492-495-497.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ003-005-015-
     016.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ003-005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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