Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 012155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF A COOL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST UTAH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COULD TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH AND UINTA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL END RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 500 MB BEGIN TO
WARM.

THIS TROUGH PRODUCED A GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT NOW IN ARIZONA AND
COLORADO. THIS SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN DIXIE NOR ALONG
THE CASTLE COUNTRY AREA AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE 700MB WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING SO
THEY ARE NOT COEXISTING...CONSEQUENTLY...WE WILL HAVE BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN THE WINDS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL DIMINISH.

THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL AREAS AND WITH THIS NEW
COOL FRESH AIR MASS AND WINDS DYING OFF THE STAGE IS SET FOR VERY
COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT FROZE THIS SEASON WHICH INCLUDES THE
SANPETE...SEVIER VALLEYS...THE UINTA BASIN AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO BE COLD AS WELL
WITH PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
REGIONS OF OTHER ZONES.

THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE EC SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SATURDAY WHICH IS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AS WELL BUT THE ONLY
IMPACT...IF ANY...WILL BE TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE WARM UP ON
SATURDAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS.
OTHER THAN THAT...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A VERY COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT. ALL LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH SUNSET ALLOWING CLEARING
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES DISTRICT WIDE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBOUND BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM QUITE RAPIDLY
BEGINNING TOMORROW...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL TREND TO WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN PLATEAU THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE EVENING. CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT DUE TO NEARBY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THOSE LEVELS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE LOWER CIGS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z
AND 05Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NEARBY SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ011-014-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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