Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 262233
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
433 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Several weak disturbances will cross the region
through the first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thru 06Z Monday)...The dominant weather feature this
afternoon remains the upper low weakening and opening up over wrn
CO swd to near 4 corners. Convection remains quite active on the
western flank of this low but has stayed mostly over higher
terrain with some drift swd over lower elevations. This activity
has been characterized by numerous small cells briefly becoming
strong enough to generate lightning and very brief localized
heavy rain. Convection should persist into the eve then die off
as we lose the solar heating.

The next upper trof to impact the region is over swrn Canada and
is forecast to drift east through Saturday with the srn portion of
this wave sweeping across nrn Ut Fri thru early Sat. This should
bring an increase in convection to the north while the rest of the
CWA looks to be a little less active than today due to less
instability. The north dries Sat aftn in the wake of this wave
while the south becomes more active under deformation between the
departing nrn wave and a new closed low that develops over srn Ca.

This deformation zone lifts north Sun as the flow backs ahead of a
new trof deepening along the Pac NW coast and expect an active day
area wide on Sun with convection lasting into Sun night as the
new trof phases with the Ca low as it moves east into Az.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Monday)...The next weak Pacific storm system
is expected to move slowly across Arizona and northern Mexico
Sunday night through early Tuesday as it continues to weaken. This
will keep lingering moisture and instability over the forecast
area, with the best chance for precip shifting into southern and
eastern Utah by Monday night. EC/GFS also indicate another system
moving just north of Utah and southwest Wyoming late Monday/early
Tuesday. GFS shows a front associated with the system moving into
northern Utah early Tuesday, but the EC keeps the front north of
the area.

High pressure is then expected to finally move back in during the
day Wednesday, resulting in dry and stable conditions with a
warming trend through day 7. Latest GFS indicates winds increasing
over western Utah Thursday afternoon as another Pacific storm
system inches toward the California coast. However, the EC keeps
the ridge axis firmly overhead and the Pacific trough well
offshore. Have leaned toward the GFS with the wind forecast at
this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak storm system currently moving across
northern Arizona will keep relatively moist and unsettled
conditions over the area today. The system will exit the region
tonight, but another system will graze northern Utah Friday night
into Saturday, providing additional fuel for showers and
thunderstorms. The unsettled weather is expected to continue into
early next week before high pressure builds over the district.

&&

.AVIATION...Northerly winds will persist into the evening hours at
KSLC before switching back to the south by 04z. There is a 10
percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm impacting the terminal
through the evening hours with gusty erratic winds and lightning.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wilensky
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Seaman

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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