000
FLUS44 KTSA 161824
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-170630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
124 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013


...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
T
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS A STRONGER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IT APPEARS AT
THIS TIME THAT THE GREATEST LIKELY-HOOD FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$