000
FLUS44 KTSA 201427
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
927 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.


DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
RAPIDLY AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THE AIRMASS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 8O MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THIS
AREA TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN COMMON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. AFTER A ONE DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY...LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. FOLKS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE EQUALLY INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE
THREAT AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$