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000
FXUS63 KPAH 312332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the vicinity of the PAH forecast area, the flow aloft and at the
sfc is forecast by the deterministic med range models to slowly
weaken over the weekend as the influence of an expansive wrn/central
CONUS ridge increases into next week. A ridge of high pressure at
the sfc is not expected to move much through mid week. Thus, stable,
dry weather will prevail for most of the extended period. Little
moisture or temp advection is expected, just the diurnal heating
effects of the summer sun, which will result in slowly increasing
temps and little change in the lower 60s dewpoints until Day 7 (Thu).

As early as Wed night, the nwrn counties may pick up a few showers
or tstms as mid level shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow begins to
enter the center of the country. Sfc low pressure will be associated
with this feature, so by then there will be an increased sfc
pressure gradient across the PAH forecast area. Better swrly low
level flow should result in an accompanying increase in available
moisture and instability for scattered shower and tstm development
across the region by daytime Thu. There is some variability in the
deterministic models as to the speed of the system at this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Conditions will be primarily VFR over the next 24 hours. Patchy fog
may restrict visibilities late tonight, especially at KCGI and KPAH.
The presence of an upper level trough will keep a scattering of VFR
clouds around through the period. Winds will be light and variable
tonight then northeast around 5 knots Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$