Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311923
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A convergent surface boundary that developed this morning from
southern Illinois down into the Pennyrile has begun to lose
definition in the last hour or so. Some isolated showers and
storms that developed over southern Illinois to the west of I-57
and north of Highway 13 earlier this afternoon have moved north
of the area, and further development this afternoon will be hard
to get with the boundary no longer providing a focus.

Some enhanced cumulus over north central Arkansas may eventually
result in isolated to scattered showers and storms over Ripley and
Carter counties later this afternoon. This activity may reach
Poplar Bluff and Greenville before it dies off with loss of
heating early this evening. With little shear and marginal
instability, severe weather is unlikely with this activity.

Weak flow aloft and a warm and modestly humid airmass are definite
signs of summer, and will persist through the short term portion
of the forecast. As an upper-level storm system, currently over
the northern Plains, passes into western Ontario through
Wednesday, a weak surface front will approach the area. With
models developing LIs around minus 5, a decent coverage of
thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon along and ahead of
the front.

This will most likely impact southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois in the afternoon and will try to move into west Kentucky
and southwest Indiana before dissipating in the evening. Given the
instability forecast, a stray brief strong to severe storm cannot
be ruled out, but figure gusty winds will be the main concern
outside of locally heavy rain and lightning.

The models bring the wind shift through the entire area by 12Z
Thursday, but there is little cool, dry advection behind it. This
allows for surface based instability to develop over at least the
southern half of the area Thursday afternoon. With no surface
boundaries to focus convective development, we will be dependent
on minor upper-level disturbances riding east northeast through
the region to provide a focus for development Thursday.

The models have been fairly consistent in generating QPF over
much of the area Thursday, but not much. Will continue with
chancy PoPs Thursday into Thursday night to cover this activity.
If the wind shift/boundary does clear the area Wednesday night,
the probability of severe weather will be very low
Thursday/Thursday night. If not, a stray pulsy strong to severe
storm would not be completely out of the realm of possibility.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Confidence is increasing in the long term as forecast models
appear to be converging towards a more unified solution in the
last few model runs. Model preferences include the ECMWF, GEM, and
ECMWF EPS ensemble mean.

The extended period starts off with the Quad State region in broad
southerly flow as an upper level low is centered over Texas. With
the forecast area in the right entrance region of an upper level jet
and the proximity of energy associated with the upper low, the
chance of showers and thunderstorms should persist Friday and Friday
night.

Over the weekend, shortwave energy over south central Canada is
forecast to strengthen into an upper low as it dives southeastward
into the Great Lakes region. This low is progged to become the
dominant factor in our weather pattern by the latter half of the
weekend as the flow pattern becomes northwesterly. So while the
potential for showers and thunderstorms continues into Saturday,
precipitation chances should taper off from the northwest Saturday
night into Sunday as a cold front passes through. Behind the front,
dry weather is forecast early next week.

Near seasonable temperatures are expected through much of the
period. Highs are generally forecast in the upper 70s and lower 80s,
as lows cool from the lower to mid 60s Friday and Saturday night
into the upper 50s by Sunday and Monday night. The main difference
will be the humidity, as drier dew point air works in behind the
weekend cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Kept the forecasts dry, but may need to add a VCSH/VCTS at KOWB
and KEVV as a boundary to the south of those locations tries to
touch off convection this afternoon. Right now the bigger threat
appears to be farther to the west of those terminals into southern
Illinois. This activity should stay north of KCGI and KPAH. Cannot
rule out a shower or storm tonight or into Wednesday morning, but
the more coherent threat will be Wednesday afternoon just beyond
this forecast period. Otherwise, with nearly calm winds and the
potential for some clearing, MVFR fog development seems like a
decent bet at most locations late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS


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