Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010758
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

As the surface high slides southeast today, northwest winds will
gradually diminish. Despite abundant sunshine, northwest flow and
mixing will only allow temperatures to climb into the 45 to 50
degree range. Winds will quickly go calm after sunset with the
high centered directly over the PAH forecast area by 06z Sunday.
Along with clear skies, temperatures should easily drop into the
middle to upper 20s tonight, so the freeze warning is in good
shape.

On Sunday, models show the high moving east and winds shifting
back to the south. This will begin a slow warming trend. Sunshine
and the south winds will help temperatures climb into the lower to
middle 50s on Sunday, and the lower to middle 60s on Monday. Lows
Sunday night will be in the middle to upper 30s, moderating into
the middle to upper 40s for Monday night.  South winds will
increase across the region Monday ahead of an approaching cold
front. ECMWF and GEM both spread precip into north and west
portions of the PAH fa between 06z and 12z Tuesday, with the GFS
just a bit slower. Continued with chance and slight chance pops
for showers across much of southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri for late Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

The medium range guidance is in pretty good agreement through
Thursday, but diverges heading into the weekend.

The 00Z GFS continues to be just a bit slower than the 00Z ECMWF in
pushing a modest cold front and band of showers/rain eastward into
our region early Tuesday. The ECMWF is not as fast as in previous
runs, but it is still a bit stronger with the upper-level storm
system that is swinging through the Great Lakes. Would prefer to
follow the faster ECMWF progression through the region, but will bow
to the GFS and the previous forecast with the official grids this
morning. QPF for this event is between 2/3" and 1", with the
heaviest amounts expected over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. There is virtually no support for thunder, so removed all
mention of it with this update.

There will be a very weak wind shift with the front late Tuesday
night or early Wednesday, but the winds should turn back to the
south by the end of the day Wednesday, as a clipper system dives
southeast toward the Great Lakes. As this system progresses, it will
push a more substantial cold front through the region late Wednesday
night or early Thursday. This will result in temperatures dropping
well below normal by the end of the week. Any precipitation
associated with the clipper is expected to be well northeast of our
region.

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS diverge considerably heading into next
weekend, as they differ in how long to keep the flow amplified after
the Thursday clipper system. Best bet at this point would be dry and
cool for next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Strong northerly low level flow will gradually weaken over the next
24 hours. Surface wind gusts will still peak around 20 knots through
Saturday afternoon. Low clouds continue to wrap cyclonically around
a deepening low pressure system well to our east. The back edge of
these clouds will remain quasi-stationary between kpah and kevv into
the early morning hours. Before they move east of the kevv/kowb
areas Saturday morning...there may lower to mvfr levels for a few
hours.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KYZ001>022.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS




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