Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020007
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
707 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 1.4" /99
PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. EVEN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

ON THE SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...ESP
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BEING ELEVATED OVER
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY BE IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
UP DRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL STONES.

RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF VFR LIGHT RAIN TO KCGI
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD THROUGH ALL
SITES IN THE 06Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET
WITH THE CONVECTION...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND
THE CONVECTION. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OR AT LEAST LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. GUSTS 25KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS



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