Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
520 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A warm front will lift NE into the area overnight with a mid level
impulse moving across the region. The result will be a slowly
increasing chance of convection later this evening, best chance
after midnight. The warm front will race NE Tuesday with mid trop
NVA developing across the area Tuesday morning, early afternoon.
Expect a lull/reduction in convective activity as a result.

Tuesday evening and overnight, weak mid level perturbations should
be enough to work with a high shear, unstable environment to
generate strong to severe convection. The SPC day 2 outlook
handles the details well, so we refer you to their product.
Timing best chances will be very difficult that far out and ahead
of a cold front to our west. But, we`ve basically been keying in
on very late day and into the evening for the initial chance, in
some form or fashion. Will keep an eye on the MO Ozarks, south
into Arkansas and east into our region. Generally followed the
GFS/EC solutions, with some NAM weight, for general overall
coverage. Chances will linger into Wednesday morning, as a cold
front moves across the area. We dry out in the afternoon, with a
dry colder Wednesday night forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

In cyclonic flow aloft, a minor shortwave and its surface reflection
may be enough to kick off a little measurable pcpn over part of
southwestern IN early on Fri.

Otherwise, in the extended forecast period, dry high pressure is
forecast to dominate the weather picture into at least the first
half of the weekend for much of the PAH forecast area, with
gradually moderating temps. Some model solutions suggest a small
possibility of showers over parts of southeastern MO or southern IL
on Sat, but the flow should become more zonal by Sun, with
increasing low level return flow. Therefore, probabilities of
showers will remain small but with somewhat greater possible
coverage on Sun.

By Mon, the med range models basically agree that a fairly
substantial mid level shortwave will approach our region, though the
details as to placement and timing of the sfc low/front and the
shortwave itself are more uncertain at this time. Instability
parameters appear conducive for tstms Mon as surface dewpoints rise
into the 50s and temps rise at least into the 60s. Surface fropa
could occur as early as late Mon afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Mainly VFR cigs are expected this evening, though pockets of MVFR
anticipated later on. Tonight we do expect convection to be
around, mainly after 06Z. MVFR/IFR cig and vsby conditions
certainly a possibility with overnight and early Tuesday morning
convection that may be around the area. Winds will generally be
SSE up to 10 kts with speeds increasing as we head into Tuesday,
with gusts possible. Any convection should come to an end around
15-18Z. Will have to watch the possibility of more convection
developing late in the day on Tuesday as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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