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000
FXUS63 KPAH 282352
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Update for 00z Thursday Routine TAF issuance (See Aviation
section).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Lightning detector shows some strikes as far south as 2-3 counties
to our north...in central Indiana. That`s in vicinity of surface
low, beneath upper Low just to its north. This cold pool pocket is
modeled to sink south with the Low(s) into/across the middle Ohio
river valley, and our Commonwealth, as we close out the workweek.
It`ll spread increasing shower chances, including a slight chance
of thunder, across esp our north and east as it does so...and be
most pronounced during the daytimes.

Resultant trajectories will spell coolish temps and dew points to
close out the week as well. Highs will be ranging through the 60s
each day, with perhaps some low 70s south and west...while Lows
generally fall into the lower half of the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

By the start of the weekend, our pesky upper level low will still be
situated over central Indiana. While we still may have clouds and
some showery activity do deal with, it will finally be coming to
an end Saturday evening, as the low lifts northward into the Great
Lakes by 12Z Sunday. The best chances will be east of the
Mississippi River. Will keep the chances in the slight to chance
category for now as coverage should be rather scattered by that
point.

We will likely still be dealing with some clouds on Sunday but more
sunshine should arrive on Monday as an upper level ridge builds in.
This will also mean warmer temperatures. In fact, we should see
close to 80 degrees on Monday. We should rise into the lower 80s by
Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge strengthens a bit, as a
strong trough digs into the western CONUS. There continues to be
differences in the timing of when this upper trough will impact our
region. The ECMWF is faster and brings precipitation into the area
as early as Wednesday night. The GFS shows more of a Thursday to
Thursday night time frame for better chances of rain. Since the GEFS
shows us dry through Wednesday, will only maintain a slight
chance running through day 7 and inch it up after that.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

With the the center of the nearly vertically stacked closed low
espected to move from KMIE at 00z Thursday, KCVG at 12z Thursday,
and northeast of KGLW by 00z Friday, quickly returned to a
gradient of VFR ceilings and vicinity showers for the WFO PAH TAF
locations, with KEVV and KOWB having more rapid coverage than
KPAH and KCGI. MVFR ceilings and visibilities should dominate the
KEVV and KOWB TAF sites from 10z-19z Thursday time frame as the
upper low reaches the closest proximity and increased chance for
rain during that time period.

Given the rapid variation in ceiling coverage during the daily
outage of observations at KOWB (while the automated weather system
is being upgraded), decided not to schedule amendments during the
outage period for KOWB.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith