Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301949
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LARGE AREA OF SMOKE ESTIMATED TO BE 10-15K/FT THICK ACROSS THE
REGION SLOWING CU DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS STILL CLIMBING SO NOT ENOUGH
TO AFFECT THAT ELEMENT. CU SEEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT IN WEST
KY. COULD BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. MEANWHILE ENERGY MOVING
SE MAY BRING CONVECTION AS WELL TO THE KEVV TRI-STATE REGION LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOWER POPS WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLIM
POPS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM SW IL INTO SEMO. STILL HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECENT FOR LATE JUNE. QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY AS
BEST CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST KY AND TO OUR NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FAA
(FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH) PRODUCT. MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY
PIN POINTING MCS DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION AND WHERE BEST QPF AXIS
WILL ACTUALLY END UP. SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THAT...AND WE THINK PROBLEMS WOULD REALLY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE CAN STILL ACHIEVE SOME LEAD
TIME IF WE NEED ONE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE GIVEN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SUPPRESSED CAPE/INSTABILITY GIVEN PERIODIC
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. CHANCE IS NOT ZERO...BUT NOT TOO HIGH. BEST
POPS WILL TRANSLATE SE THUR/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS VERY GOOD DURING THE LONG TERM. THE 500 MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TICK IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AND AN UPWARD TICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE SMALL
CHANGES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE IMPORTANT FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND PROBABLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE
NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER WITH THE CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG.

ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN RESIDENCE OVER
OUR AREA. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND TOWARD
HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRUSH PAST OUR REGION.

TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB EVER SO SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD...FROM AROUND 80 FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A BLANKET OF SMOKE OVER OUR REGION IS DUE TO WILDFIRES IN THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. PER TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH THE
KMWA AIRPORT MANAGER...THE BASE OF THE SMOKE LAYER IS AROUND 5K FEET
AND A PILOT REPORTED A TOTAL OBSCURATION. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A
BROKEN DECK AT 5K FEET. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE AS WELL AS
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOUT THE SAME HEIGHT.

VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WABASH VALLEY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL
INTRODUCE VCTS FOR THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BYPASS THOSE SITES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER
MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND MAY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IL TO THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CIG
IN VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION.....MY



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