Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwest half
of Missouri will move southeast toward our southeast Missouri
counties early this morning. The prevailing trend in the short
term guidance is for it weaken and dissipate either before
reaching the area, or just after it moves in. This makes sense
because the convection will be moving away from the low-level
warm advection that is supporting it, as it moves into our region. By
18Z, this activity should be done, and the afternoon should be
dry.

Our attention then turns to a cold front that is expected to move
southeast through the forecast area late tonight and Friday
morning, as a significant upper-level trough swings southeast
through the Great Lakes. With only very weak return southerly
flow, moisture will be very limited, so coverage of convection
near the front is not expected to be that great. Will keep chancy
PoPs going, with the best chances across northern portions of
southern Illinois overnight tonight.

As the front moves into the southeast half of the area Friday
morning, convection is expected to be very sparse, but there is
some chance that the front will hang up over southeast Missouri.
Weak upper-level disturbances in west northwest flow aloft may
bring scattered convection back into southeast Missouri,
most likely just north of the surface boundary in the afternoon.
Northern portions of southern Illinois should be dry all day
Friday.

All 00Z guidance is in agreement that surface high pressure will
establish itself over the region Friday night and it will remain
overhead through at least 12Z Sunday. Friday night will be dry,
but the models continue to advertise decent coverage of convection
Saturday and Saturday night. This is in response to low-level warm
advection over the boundary, as a weak upper trough moves slowly
eastward through the Plains.

Surface low pressure remains over the southern Plains, so the
models may be a bit overdone/aggressive in pushing significant QPF
eastward into and through our area behind the front Saturday into
Saturday night. The guidance has shifted a bit northward with the
primary swath of QPF, and is now focusing more on the I-64
corridor. Will have likely PoPs mainly over the northern half of
southern Illinois and Perry county Missouri, but will not be
surprised if the forecast trends drier for this time frame.

Generally went closer to the warm side of guidance for highs today
and Friday, and temperatures will trend warmer, possibly reaching
normal levels Friday. Otherwise, stayed close to consensus for
temperatures through Saturday night. We will feel the effects of
the cold front by Saturday, when highs will only be in the mid and
upper 70s in the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

At the start of the day on Sunday, we will likely have some ongoing
convection across parts of the region (mainly northern areas) due to
overrunning with a warm front to our south. During the day on Sunday
and into Sunday night, the warm front will lift northward, keeping
chances for showers and storms in our region. Plus, we have nearly
zonal flow aloft and disturbances moving through that will also help
with convective initiation.

Seems as though the differences between the ECWMF and GFS continue
but have gotten better with the 00Z runs. The GFS continues to
indicate a nice looking upper level wave moving east across the
central Plains into Missouri Sunday into Sunday night. The 12Z ECMWF
continued to show this same system shearing out with time which
meant the aforementioned front just stalled out and best chances for
rain remained in the northern sections of the CWA through the day on
Monday.

However, the 00Z ECWMF run is now more in line with the more
consistent GFS, but still weaker with the upper level system.
It shows the upper system moving eastward and so we will see a
serious uptick in precip chances areawide Sunday night through
Monday. The warm front will continue to shift northward and the cold
front eventually moves in from the west later on Monday/Monday
night. The GFS shows the system moving out late Monday
night/Tuesday, ending the big chances for rain, while the ECMWF
lingers chances a bit longer since the front essentially stalls
out/dissipates over the region.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and
precipitation. However, we are not looking for oppressive heat for
the latter half of the holiday weekend, with even the hottest
locations only reaching around 90 degrees. Due to high moisture
content in the atmosphere, heavy rainfall will be a threat through
the period. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out due to the level
of instability, mainly on Monday, but with the weak mid level flow
in flow, not expecting widespread severe at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The forecasts are VFR. Light south winds will develop today ahead
of a cold front that will approach the terminals by the end of the
12Z TAF period. Isolated TS will be possible over southeast
Missouri this morning, but it is not expected to reach KCGI or
KPAH before dissipating prior to midday. Widely scattered TS will
be possible along and ahead of the cold front late tonight, but the
expected coverage is just not great enough to warrant a mention.
Some short range guidance is hinting at a brief period of MVFR fog
near sunrise Friday, but with the front nearby and some potential
for convection figure that it will not happen.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW



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