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000
FXUS63 KPAH 080909
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

In the very short term, issued an SPS for some patchy ice on roads
due to patchy freezing fog and refreezing of melted snow/ice.
Temperatures should be above freezing quickly after sunrise.

An an area of high pressure will help to push a weak front
through the area today. At the same time a shortwave over the
southern Rockies is forecast to move east and aid in the
development of a weak low pressure system over west central Texas.
As a result of the overrunning produced by the low, some light
rain should move through the area today and tonight. Some light
snow may mix with the rain over the northern sections briefly this
evening. No accumulation is expected.

High pressure should allow for dry and relatively clear skies
through Monday Night.

High temperatures today may be tempered somewhat by the remaining
ice and the cold frontal passage over the southwest and central
sections. By Monday we expect most of the snow/ice to be gone and
should rise into the 60s over all areas on the back side of the
high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Rather complex pattern setting up for the first portion of the long
term forecast. Models are in decent agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern, but differ somewhat on timing and qpf. It now
looks like a split flow srn stream h50 low will travel ene across
the nrn Gulf region during the day Tue as a nrn branch trof digs
se into the nrn/cntrl Rockies. This will likely leave us between
systems initially, in broad wswly flow aloft. Therefore, will go
with a dry and quite mild forecast Tue with highs well into the 60s.

The nrn branch trof will likely spawn a sfc low development over the
srn Plains Tue night. This low will then track ne into the Ohio
Valley later Tue night/early Wed, bringing a chc of light rain to
most locations. GFS remains the more progressive with this feature,
and has it over the East Coast by noon Wed. The ECMWF is still
slower and thus holds onto precip chcs longer Wed. The operational
EC has sped up compared to prev runs, and is catching up with the
operational GFS. Thus, it now looks as though most of the
moisture/precip will be east of the region Wed evening before the
boundary layer is cold enuf to support a change to snow.

Beyond Wednesday night, high pressure will be building across the
eastern U.S.  MEX and ECE guidance still differ by 10 degrees or so
for highs on Thursday, with ECE the colder guidance.  Winds will be
out of the northwest through the day, however believe ECE is too
cold based on clearing skies and increasing sun angle. Also, this
should only be a 1020 mb high coming out of srn Canada as opposed to
the prev 1040 mb high last week.  Leaned more heavily toward MEX
guidance but did not go all that way for now.  By Thursday night
into Friday, guidance comes into better agreement, and with winds
shifting back to the southwest, temperatures will moderate back to
near seasonal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST Sat MAR 8 2014

MVFR vsbys possible til 14Z...then VFR conditions expected at all
sites through at least 23Z...then MVFR cigs and VCSH expected to
overspread from northwest to southeast all of the TAF sites. Calm
to light and variable winds expected through 18Z...then veer
around to the northwest aob 10 knots.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP/PS