Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211726 AAA

1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

The cold front, and its associated convection, is right now
bearing down on our northern counties...still 1 to 2 counties
removed to our north. It will be sweeiping in this morning, with
isolated to scattered convection accompanying its passage. The
models are fairly consistent with ending Pops by 18z or if not,
very shortly thereafter.

After that, High pressure moves in, dry air works down the column,
and cooler air settles highs/lows back to seasonal temperatures
for the remainder of the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

High pressure dominates the first part of the long term forecast,
but as it has shifted east, and southerly return flow develops,
temps warm back to the lower 80s for highs, and up thru the 50s
for lows.

The high should keep the remainder of the workweek dry, but the
models signal some tropical moisture fetching up across the TN
valley late in the period, as low pressure takes shape across the
south and migrates eastward. This will mean a reintroduction of
Pops as we head into next weekend.


Issued at 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

As high pressure overspreads the region in the wake of a cold
frontal passage, winds will be out of the northwest at 10-12 knots
gusting up to 18 knots through 00Z, AOB 5 knots through 15Z, then
out of the north northeast AOB 6 knots. A deck of wrap around
clouds in the 025-030 range to the north is forecast to sink
southward across the terminals overnight into Monday morning.
Given other parameters, not convinced there will be a ceiling, so
added SCT clouds for now.




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