187
FXUS65 KABQ 250930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are on tap today across
northern and central New Mexico. Please be smart and avoid any
actions that can cause a spark or start a fire. Any new fire starts
will spread rapidly. It is extremely important today to follow
safety protocols and regulations issued by local authorities,
including any evacuation orders. Outdoor burning is highly
discouraged and potentially illegal and very dangerous. Your
neighbors lives and livelihood may be affected by your actions. Wind
gusts of 50 to 55 mph are expected across most of eastern New Mexico
with gusts of 60 mph possible across the south central mountains and
southwest Chaves County. After a breezy Sunday, winds finally
lighten up and temperatures heat up Memorial Day due to high
pressure builds overhead. Surface moisture increases a little across
eastern areas Memorial Day thanks to a cold front, but more moisture
moves in from the east Tuesday and Wednesday and this could help
result in the development of a few storms across northeast New
Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry westerly
flow looks to push better moisture and storm chances into Texas late
this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Winds will strengthen areawide today as an upper level trough
crossing from the west steers the jet stream over the state. A 60-70
KT southwesterly speed maximum at 500 mb is forecast to stretch from
the south central mountains northeastward across the southeast and
east central plains.  With high temperatures varying from near to as
much as 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages across this area, the
atmosphere should mix well above 700 mb in many locations.  With
this forecast package we are expanding the ongoing Wind Advisory to
include Chaves and De Baca Counties, as well as the upper Tularosa
Valley, because they are under the strong speed max aloft.  So are
Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt Counties, which will need to be watched
for expansion of wind highlights during a late morning update.  Left
these latter three zones out of the Advisory for now due to weaker
MOS winds there. With this package we will also upgrade the south
central mountains to a High Wind Warning, since southwest flow
aligns with some of the canyons often leading to funneling and
over performance on wind speeds, including the notorious Nogal
ZiaMet station. Anyone in the south central mountains will need to
pay close attention to evacuation orders today, since
southwesterly wind gusts to 60 mph are likely to cause rapid
expansion of the Blue 2 Fire with long range spotting leading to
new fire starts potentially miles down wind from the main forest
fire. This situation is dangerous, and it will be very important
for the public to heed evacuation orders to protect their lives.
In addition, wildfire smoke will billow from this fire impacting
the communities along the northeast slopes of the Sacramento
Mountains, as well locations as far away as Clovis and Portales.
Another smokey location today will be down wind from the Indios
fire near Gallinas Peak to Taos and eventually Raton by this
evening. The combination of strong winds, very low humidity, and
unstable atmosphere will produce critical fire weather conditions
areawide today.

A gusty Pacific cold front will cross from the west and northwest
this afternoon and evening with a westerly wind shift.  By Sunday
winds aloft and at the surface will weaken areawide, but they may
still remain strong enough for additional fire weather concerns
across the central highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Northwest breezes areawide taper off after sunset Sunday. Surface
moisture increases very slightly across the eastern plains Sunday
night into Monday morning due to a backdoor front entering that
part of the state. Much lighter winds look to finally arrive
areawide Memorial Day as upper level ridging builds over the
state. Could see some virga showers and erratic wind gusts of up
to 45 mph Monday afternoon and evening across far north central
and northeast NM near the CO border. This is due to some mid level
moisture moving east across that area. Temperatures will increase
across western and central NM due to the higher upper level
heights with Albuquerque probably seeing its first 90 degree day
of the year on Tuesday (right around the average 1st 90 degree
date of May 27th) and Farmington getting into the upper 80s.
Overall, temperatures next week will be around to slightly above
average with very little change day to day.

For those of you hoping for precipitation, it will be basically
nonexistent across western and central NM due to very dry westerly
flow. For eastern NM, its not extremely promising to be honest.
Meager moisture from the backdoor front Monday morning quickly mixes
out Monday afternoon. Return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves
into eastern NM from the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning
allowing dewpoints to increase to the 40s to low 50s according to
ensemble solutions. The moisture mixes east towards West Texas
midday, but looks to hold on long enough across northeast NM to
result in a few showers and storms before moving into Texas. Storms
in West Texas Tuesday evening, will push the dryline and higher Gulf
moisture east of it back west into New Mexico. The GFS, ECMWF and
ensemble solutions bring the moisture as far west as the RGV and
into the ABQ Metro Wednesday morning resulting in light east canyon
winds. Dewpoints across eastern plains increase to the 50s Wednesday
morning. With the moisture getting farther west, it will take longer
to mix out east. However, ensembles agree on an upper level
trough/low moving into the Pacific NW Wednesday and the slightly
stronger westerly flow south of this helps push the moisture back
east towards West Texas. but it looks to hang on long enough across
northeast NM to allow for some showers and storms to develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening before moving into West Texas.
Additionally, some drier storms could develop in the Sangre de
Cristo mountains and this could produce dry lightning. The dryline
backs west again possibly getting to the central highlands Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. However, the westerly flow at the base
of the upper low looks to push the moisture back east into West
Texas. If a storm were to develop, will probably be in far northeast
NM near the TX/OK border. The upper level trough moves east into the
northern Great Plains Friday with the dryline into West Texas by the
afternoon. However, a backdoor front could move into far northeast
NM and provide to moisture to generate a shower or storm there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

The jetstream will move over NM Saturday morning, then linger
overhead through the day, with strong winds areawide. Winds will
begin gusting out of the southwest in the morning, then the wind
direction will shift out of the west during the afternoon and
evening as a Pacific cold front crosses from the west. Vigorous
thermals will develop over eastern areas, where high temperatures
will climb as much as 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. The
Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak and the Blue 2 Fire in the
northern Sacramento Mountains are expected to billow with well-
developed smoke plumes stretching toward the northeast Saturday
afternoon, then toward the east Saturday evening. The Blue Fire`s
plume will probably expand rapidly during mid to late morning, and
continue into the late night hours near and southwest of the fire;
including over KSRR where an MVFR ceiling is likely late Saturday
night with a risk of visibility reduction as well. You may view
the HRRR Model`s Forecast Smoke Loop at
https://shorturl.at/aCnlW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY...

Strong winds are expected areawide today as an upper level trough
crossing from the west draws the jetstream over the state. The most
extreme fire weather conditions are forecast east of the central
mountain chain where many locations can expect wind gusts up to 50
mph and humidities will drop into the single digits with Haines
Indices maxing out at 6.  A Pacific cold front will cross from the
west this afternoon and evening shifting the wind direction out of
the west.  Winds will then weaken and shift out of the northwest by
Sunday, when winds may still be strong enough for another round of
critical conditions across the Central Highlands. The weather
pattern will then shift during the first half of the coming work
week as a couple somewhat moist backdoor fronts and southeasterly
return flow allow better moisture into eastern areas, and a ridge of
high pressure crosses aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
across portions of the east Tuesday through Thursday, but wetting
footprints look pretty small, and potentially nonexistent in some
places like the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where gusty virga showers
will be more likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  45  78  44 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  34  75  35 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  72  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  37  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  69  38  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  75  38  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  47  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  72  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  77  34  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  65  33  68  35 /  10   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  72  48  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  48  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  66  42  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  36  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  66  35  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  73  37  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  72  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  80  48  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  87  50  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  84  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  85  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  80  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  79  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  80  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  79  44  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  80  46  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  47  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  85  51  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  80  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  88  54  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  85  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  91  55  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  92  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  93  57  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  90  56  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  97  60  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  85  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ223>225-227>229-231>233-237>239.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ125.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44