585
FXUS64 KAMA 311923
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Today is shaping up to have another round of active weather with
rain showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening. Currently the clear to mostly clear skies over the
panhandles is allowing instability to increase once again across
the region. The increasing instability will be coupled with a
slight increase in moisture being brought in by a weak southerly
flow. These are already fueling the development of rain showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains of NM and CO. With the passage
of a shortwave trough this convection will propagate to the east
into the OK and TX panhandles during the late afternoon through
the evening. The dynamics associated with this trough should allow
for a few storms to become more agonized and severe. The main
threat from the severe thunderstorms remains large hail and
damaging winds with a very low chance for a tornado. While the
odds are very low a few of these storms can cause high rain rates
and flash flooding. Once the trough passes to the east some
further rain showers and thunderstorms may develop during the
overnight to early morning hours of Saturday. These storms have a
very low chance of causing anything beyond additional light
rainfall.

For Saturday another trough that is overall more potent than
today will pass across the panhandles during the afternoon and
evening hours. Similar to today these storms will most likely
first form in the high terrain of NM and CO and then be pushed
eastward into the OK and TX panhandles. The big question to the
amount and coverage of this round of storms will be in how much
rain showers and thunderstorms occurred tonight into Saturday. If
we have a lot of overnight storms then the available energy for
the afternoon and evening storms on Saturday will be greatly
diminished. If the activity overnight is low or doesn`t
materialize then Saturday afternoon and evening will see more
vigorous and extensive activity. Regardless in amount of activity
the rain showers and thunderstorms are likely to pass in a W to E
fashion across the panhandles during the afternoon and evening.
The activity should in large be to the east going into overnight
hours. A few thunderstorms could regenerate behind this line but
this will be conditional based on the extent of the previous
activity. Current dynamics associated with the trough will allow
for these thunderstorms to be severe and damaging winds remaining
the main threats. Tornados remain a very low threat but cannot be
fully ruled out for Saturday. Moisture amounts likewise will
allow for a low chance of flash flooding from storms with high
rain rates. The stronger nature of the trough will allow for winds
to become gusty during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts
most likely in the 20s to low 30s mph range. These southerly
winds will also allow for temperatures to be warmer on Saturday
with highs in the mid to high 80s across the panhandles.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The situation Sunday morning across the Panhandles is very uncertain
given that there are possibly two rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms between today and Sunday, with each round impacting
the succeeding day`s timing and impacts of thunderstorms. It seems
as though that by Sunday morning, a potential complex of
thunderstorms should be out of the Panhandles with clouds and
potentially isolated showers lingering through the morning.
Atmospheric recovery and destabilization should eventually occur
throughout the day as clouds clear out and southerly winds bring in
warmth and low-level moisture. A weak shortwave trough will move
toward the Panhandles and a lee surface low will develop in
southeastern Colorado, helping bring dry southwesterly winds in to
the western combined Panhandles with a surface trough setting up
somewhere in the central Panhandles. Thunderstorms may develop along
the surface trough and become strong to severe. However, there are
definitely failure modes for severe thunderstorm potential. It is
entirely possible that Saturday night`s convection is very robust
and/or lingers late into the night. In this case, it may take longer
for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize before the shortwave
trough arrives in the afternoon. Additionally, temperatures aloft
will be warmer than what we`ve seen from this northwest flow regime
over the past week, therefore we would have to warm into at least
the 80s to low-90s to breach the inversion.

Unfortunately, we break the wet and active pattern starting Monday
and temperatures warm into the 90s across the Panhandles. Tuesday
may be the hottest day of the week as 30-33C 850mb temperatures
advect into the area, allowing for temperatures in the mid-90s to
low-100s. Will have to watch Palo Duro Canyon closely as NBM brings
highs up to 103 degrees, but winds are forecast to be weak which may
allow for some additional heat enhancement in the Canyon which may
bring temperatures up to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). An
upper-level ridge builds just west of the Panhandles Wednesday and
into the latter half of the work week, and northwest flow may resume
as an upper-level trough dips down into the Great Lakes/Midwest
region. This may re-introduce another wet and active pattern
depending upon the details of the ridge to the west and the trough
to the east.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR and fair weather conditions will persist at all terminals to
the mid afternoon hours. Then during the late afternoon a lines
of thunderstorms have a high chance of forming in the western
panhandles. These will move in a E to SE direction and will have a
high chance of impacting all terminals during the late afternoon
through evening. These thunderstorms may degrade conditions to
MVFR with a low chance of becoming IFR or less. The is a moderate
chance that ANY hail will occur and a low chance that severe hail
of 1 in or greater will occur. Winds will be gusty with the
passage of these thunderstorms with a low chance of 50+ kt gusts.
Post passage of the thunderstorms conditions have a high chance or
returning to VFR with a low chance of continued light rain
showers. Another round of thunderstorms with a low chance of
severe thunderstorms is expected for Saturday afternoon to evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  86  62  91 /  50  20  30  20
Beaver OK                  59  87  62  91 /  40  40  50  20
Boise City OK              54  86  57  92 /  60  40  30  10
Borger TX                  63  90  64  95 /  60  20  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              60  90  62  96 /  50  30  30  10
Canyon TX                  60  86  61  92 /  50  20  30  20
Clarendon TX               61  84  62  87 /  40  30  40  40
Dalhart TX                 56  87  57  93 /  50  30  30  10
Guymon OK                  57  87  60  92 /  50  40  40  20
Hereford TX                60  88  60  94 /  40  10  30  10
Lipscomb TX                60  86  63  89 /  50  40  40  20
Pampa TX                   61  85  63  89 /  50  20  40  20
Shamrock TX                62  84  63  87 /  40  30  40  40
Wellington TX              63  85  64  87 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98