449
FXUS64 KAMA 152319
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Increasing chances for rain through the week, with late Tuesday
into Wednesday and Friday having the highest potential A low to
moderate chance for severe thunderstorms and flooding will exist,
favoring mid to late week.

Above normal temperatures will continue though the first part of
the week with highs in the 90`s, but a cooling tend is expected
with highs in the 70`s and 80`s by the weekend.

Brief periods of elevated fire weather conditions are expected
Monday and Wednesday across the far northwest combined Texas
Oklahoma Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Heights aloft are decreasing for the next few days. Short term
analysis and current observations show the 588 decameter line
rising over much of the area, but then retreating southward as the
day time hours come to a close. A large scale, robust upper level
trough proceeds in its transition eastward. Moisture will surge
alongside this trough; but until then, drier air remains in place
across the CWA. A stable air mass has been left in the wake of
yesterday`s thunderstorm activity with very shallow moisture
profiles as shown by our 12Z sounding this morning. This
subsidence is expected to erode later this afternoon as the
advancing upper trough introduces a shortwave into the combined
Panhandles. By the evening and night time hours another low level
jet will set up across the Panhandles. It will develop a SW/NE
orientation overnight with its strength ranging between 25-35 kts.
The progress of the upper trough will also tighten the pressure
gradient at the surface for today and tomorrow. Mostly southerly
wind flow is expected, and wind profiles will remain breezy as the
week begins.

Highs today will persist well above average for this time of year.
Though, 850 mb temperatures have come down compared to the
previous two record breaking days. That alongside the
aforementioned decreasing heights will result in highs ranging
between the low to upper 90`s. Only a few isolated hot spots in
the Texas Panhandle will see triple digits today, but not nearly
as many as yesterday.

Some limited fire weather concerns exist for
the northwestern combined Panhandles today, as the lowest RH
values and highest surface winds will be positioned in those zones
this afternoon. That said, minimum RH values and surface winds do
not quite meet criteria for any increase in maximum RFTIs.
Perhaps only a brief window for elevated fire weather is possible,
but that will quickly dissipate by the evening as RH values
recover.

A slight chance (10-24%) is in place for thunderstorms this
evening once the subsidence aloft is pushed away from our area,
and a shortwave trough enters the region. Currently based off of
satellite, the main wave is traversing across central New Mexico
and is expected to enter the Panhandles close to the 6-7 PM
timeframe. A few isolated thunderstorms may hold together as they
enter our CWA, but the limited instability and wind shear in our
area will see them collapse not long afterwards. High based storms
will be capable of producing strong wind gusts similar to
yesterday, but the lower forecasted DCAPE leads to lower chances
for storms to produce damaging wind gusts. Nevertheless, a severe
storm or two cannot be ruled out if local enhancements are made to
the near storm environment. (<5%) Lightning induce fire start are
also possible this evening, but fire spread is expected to be
very limited in areas outside the northwestern Panhandles.

Tomorrow, breezy surface winds will accompany warm temperatures
across the CWA. Wind speeds should range between 10-20 mph, and
high temperatures should be in the 90`s. The fire weather
potential continues to be low and unfavorable, but a few isolated
areas in the northwest could experience elevated fire weather
conditions due to similar parameters from today`s fire weather
concerns. Dry air entrainment is forecast to limit POPs across
most of the CWA tomorrow, but CAMs suggest there could be some
isolated development in the eastern and northeastern Panhandles
tomorrow afternoon. Chances for storms to become severe are low
again as the better instability is positioned east of our CWA.
Still, a severe storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. (<5%)

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The main upper level low enters our CWA in the long term period
and is forecast to bring multiple shortwaves across the region
throughout the week. By the weekend, long range guidance suggest
that a cut off low from the main trough will develop and
transition across the area. Theta-E values are expected to
increase areawide, while temperatures profiles should mostly
remain the same through the work week. By the weekend, enough
cloud cover and lingering precipitation could be sufficient to
reduce day time highs.

Mid and long range models have consistently shown two main days
for the highest POPs across the combined Panhandles: Tuesday and
Friday. Though chances are still at play each day this week,
subsidence will be left behind the main action days and
environmental recovery is needed before introducing the notion of
widespread precipitation again. Concern for severe thunderstorms,
despite being this far out, is rising due to the favorable upper
pattern anticipated to unfold. That alongside modest to strong
forecasted environmental parameters, gives us confidence in at
least seeing the typical severe hazards occur in the region during
these days. Damaging winds, large hail, and flooding seem
reasonable for the primary hazards, but perhaps more could be
introduced down the line as mesoscale parameters are resolved. The
primary concerns with forecasting the threat lie within
calculating the timing and areas most likely to be impacted.
Confidence will rise as we approach the coming days, but we will
continue to watch the trends for now. High temperatures throughout
the week will consistently stay in the 80`s and 90`s until we
enter the weekend. As early as Friday, we could see day time highs
cool down into the 70`s and 80`s, especially in the northern
zones, as cloud coverage and precipitation chances increase
towards the weekend. Long range models have yet to display a true
cold front entering our area within the next 7 days, but hints of
one doing so are being shown beyond the extended.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Winds will be gusty at times at 20-30 kts this evening and
tomorrow afternoon. A stray shower or storm will still be possible
near KDHT in the next few hours. Confidence is still low, but
amendments may be needed.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  93  65  92 /   0  10  10  20
Beaver OK                  63  93  64  93 /  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              60  89  62  88 /  10  10  10  30
Borger TX                  65  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              62  94  65  92 /  10   0  10  40
Canyon TX                  62  92  64  91 /   0  10  10  30
Clarendon TX               63  92  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 58  90  60  89 /  10   0  10  40
Guymon OK                  62  94  64  91 /  10  10  10  20
Hereford TX                61  93  62  92 /  10   0   0  30
Lipscomb TX                64  94  65  93 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   63  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                63  93  65  93 /  10   0  10   0
Wellington TX              64  94  65  95 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...38