Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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916 FXUS62 KJAX 240514 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 114 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Main update this evening was the addition of isolated showers for the next couple hours across the Suwannee Valley northward into SE GA where east coast sea breeze and GOMEX sea breeze will interact. Otherwise, as this early evening activity fades, skies will trend mostly clear overnight aside from a few waves of cirrus pushing through the dirty ridging aloft. Under the mostly clear skies, the air will cool to the middle and upper 60s, except at the coast where the lows will read closer to 70. Persistence pattern holds tomorrow for the most part. However, a shortwave will skid across the northern periphery of the ridge and bring a slight chance of showers to areas near the Altamaha River in SE GA. Additionally, spotty shower activity appears possible with the sea breeze interaction across inland NE FL during the late afternoon and early evening Friday. With the slower sea breeze, temps will heat up reaching the low 90s inland. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our region from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a shortwave trough expected to traverse the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians on Friday. A relatively weak surface pressure pattern in place locally will allow the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop this afternoon, progressing inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75 corridor towards sunset. There may be just enough low level moisture in place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along the I-75 corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and subsident air mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate any chances for thunderstorms later today and this evening. Cirrus cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue to thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our area through tonight. This subsident air mass may foster some patchy fog formation during the predawn hours along the I-75 corridor and portions of inland southeast GA. Inland lows will fall to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure ridge will sink to the south on Friday into Friday night, as a 500mb trough moves southeast across SE GA. While much of the area will be dry on Friday, a few showers and storms will be possible over far northern forecast area counties. For Saturday into Saturday night, the surface ridge will remain to the south southeast of the area, while an upper trough is in place over region. The combination of increasingly moist southwest flow, sea breeze interactions, and upper waves moving through could result in a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into night. Temperatures will continue to run above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast, and a frontal zone to the northwest during the first half of this period. This half of the period, will mainly be dry, but afternoon convection can not be ruled out, largely due to sea breeze interactions and upper waves. The frontal zone is expected to sink southeast into area and stall for Tuesday through Wednesday. This boundary will be a focus mechanism for convective development. At this time, models depict the boundary pushing through for Thursday, so better chance for Thursday to be a dry day. While temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period, the warmest stretch will be during the first half of the period, before the front arrives. A noticeable airmass change is expected following the frontal passage, with Thursday not only a little cooler, but with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 SCT-BKN high cirrus 200-250 kft and FEW-BKN 060-080 bases will continue to pass over the terminals through daybreak. The best chance of MVFR conditions between 7-11z will occur at VQQ where TEMPO 3SM BR was maintained. SSE winds 3-7 kts will become more SSW toward daybreak. After sunrise, diurnally enhanced cumulus with bases 4.5-6 kft will develop through the mid afternoon as sea breezes develop. A more dominant west coast sea breeze today will bring a slower moving inland east coast sea breeze across the coastal terminals during the mid to later afternoon and then across JAX/VQQ into the evening while prevailing SW flow continues at GNV. Best chance of VCSH will occur near SSI after 21z and will continue through 02z as a short wave trough passes overhead and sea breeze convergence occurs just west of the terminal. Potential for TS exists, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Farther south, NE FL terminals have about a 15% chance of mainly evening showers and possibly a lone TS. With drier mid level air, confidence still not high enough to include in VCSH in TAFs yet. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure ridge will drift south southeast of the region through Friday. The region will be between the ridge to the south southeast, and an approaching frontal system late in the weekend into early next week. The frontal zone will move southeast into the area and stall Tuesday into Wednesday, before passing through Thursday. Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 93 71 / 10 10 20 10 SSI 87 73 90 73 / 10 10 20 20 JAX 93 70 94 71 / 10 0 20 10 SGJ 90 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 93 67 93 69 / 10 0 20 0 OCF 93 68 93 70 / 0 0 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$