673
FXUS64 KTSA 261913
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Late afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Weak sfc low currently located over SE KS with trailing cold front
extending into NE OK and retreating convective cold pool boundary
lifting northeastward across far NW AR. Recent satellite imagery
shows deepening Cu field along the cold front along the OK / KS
border and expectation is remains that isolated to scattered
storms will develop along the boundary as it pushes southeastward
into an uncapped and unstable airmass. A more concentrated area of
convection is near and downstream of the aforementioned sfc low
and storms in the region may spread into portions of far NW AR
before spreading more eastward. Meanwhile, isolated storms will
remain possible along the advancing cold front through the early
evening hours before it clears the local forecast area. A few
strong to briefly severe storms will be possible given large
instability and deep shear profiles. Low level shear remains
weak, however strong low level cape / boundary focused vorticity
fields would warrant at least a low tornado potential primarily
with the storms near or ahead of the sfc low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Sfc high pressure builds into the region on Monday with a welcome
tranquil weather day. Flow aloft transitions more northwesterly
through the Southern Plains by Tuesday favoring multiple
thunderstorm complex to spread southeastward through Thursday. The
initial storms may focus more west of the local region, however
with time storm chances increase primarily late Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Flow aloft again turns westerly to southwesterly Thursday into
next weekend. Multiple passing wave within this pattern will
support daily thunderstorm chances. A risk of severe weather along
with locally heavy rainfall totals will also develop from late
week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mainly VFR conditions prevail this afternoon across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas with some MVFR ceilings across
northeast Oklahoma. The trend of mostly VFR conditions will prevail
through the valid period. Isolated thunderstorms have the potential
impact the NW AR sites late this afternoon and early evening. Have
added at short-term VCTS to handle this possibility.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  88  62  84 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   66  90  64  86 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   64  91  64  82 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   58  87  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  85  60  83 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   61  84  60  84 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   63  87  62  83 /  10   0   0  20
MIO   59  84  60  81 /  10   0   0  10
F10   62  87  62  83 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   65  90  65  83 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10