904
AXNT20 KNHC 171803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Gordon, at 17/1500 UTC, are in the Atlantic Ocean
close to 19.5N 49.1W. The present movement is toward the north,
360 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with
gusts to 35 knots. Expect for the next 12 hours or so: strong
winds, and rough seas, within 60 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from
16N to 21N between 45W and 55W.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 29N49W. A stationary front
passes through 31N37W, to the 29N49W low pressure center, to
26N52W, beyond 31N62W. Moderate to rough seas are from the
stationary front northward between 50W and 60W, and from 30N
northward from 60W westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 26N
northward between 20W and 50W, and from 27N northward between
57W and 61W. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near
gale-force winds with higher gusts, and rough to near-very rough
seas, in the forecast waters in the NW semicircle and within
150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Elsewhere to the north
of a line: 31N46W 27N51W 27N55W 31N57W fresh winds, and
rough seas in N to NE swell.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close to
the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. The wave is moving through
parts of the Windward Passage, through Jamaica, to Colombia just
to the east of Panama. A tropical wave is along 91W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. The monsoon
trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia and beyond Costa
Rica into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is from 15N southward between 75W and
85W. This precipitation is in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, and in parts of Central America. Isolated moderate to
locally
strong is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea that is from the
Puerto Rico westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa
near 13N17W, to 12N20W 11N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from
15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough
covers the eastern half of the Gulf. The GFS model for 700 mb
shows that a ridge is along 22N/24N, from east to west, in the
Gulf. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
27N southward. A stationary front passes through Florida, just
to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to the Florida Panhandle, and
then in the U.S.A. Gulf coastal plains/the coastal waters, from
the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N northward.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the entire area.

Weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will support
generally light to gentle winds and slight seas into Thu. Locally
moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly
through the middle of the week. A cold front moving through the
Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented
inverted trough is from the coast of Colombia toward the
central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 17N southward from 72W eastward.

Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the central one-third
of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the
eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are
from 80W westward. Moderate seas are from 82W eastward, and
from 17N northward from 82W eastward. Slight seas are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.84 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.43 in
Monterrey in Mexico; 0.23 in Merida in Mexico; 0.09 in Bermuda;
0.06 in Guadeloupe; 0.05 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.02 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica and in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. This
information is from the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered
near 24N64W and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh
to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the
south-central
Caribbean through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas will occur across the E and central Caribbean, with
the exception of light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
the remnants of Gordon, and for details about the Central
Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event/the 1008 mb low pressure
center that is near 29N49W.

A stationary front passes through 31N75W, to Florida just to the
north of Lake Okeechobee, and then northwestward to the Florida
Panhandle.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 320 nm to 480 nm to the southeast of the
stationary front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the
period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.84 in Freeport in the
Bahamas; 0.09 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 24N65W.

Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is away from the
remnants of Gordon, and away from the area of the
29N49W 1008 mb low pressure center. An exception is for
fresh SE winds from 06N southward between 35W and 45W.

A low pressure system located E of area will bring increasing
winds and building seas across the NE waters through Fri.
The forecast calls for fresh to strong NE to E winds and
building seas of 8 to 12 ft Wed through Thu. These marine
conditions will gradually diminish on Fri. Expect pulsing
fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through Wed.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
mt/gr