Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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952 FXUS64 KHGX 222045 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 345 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 While there has been a fair amount of activity on radar today, not much if any, has been reaching the ground. A strong persistent cap has helped to keep things quiet, but models are still indicating a chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon into the even- ing hours as a weak front moves in from the north and the dry line approaches from the west. The activity is progged to hold together as it moves from Central TX into our northern CWA this evening. We are still looking at a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms if this development holds together. There have been no changes to SPC and WPC outlooks for today...with the northern third of the CWA in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather (levels 1 and 2 out of 5) and a mostly Marginal Risk for excessive rain for our northern- most counties (Madison, Trinity, Houston). Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe weather threats. Brief heavy rain could produce amounts from 1-3 inches in a short period, which will then cause issues in low-lying areas as well as localized street flood- ing. Some of the guidance is suggesting that these storms might be tracking as far south as Houston proper before the cap/loss of day time heating wins out. Outside of this, the forecast for SE TX will be generally warm and muggy as onshore winds persist. Highs will tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid and upper 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico will remain a dominant force in the Texas atmosphere, keeping conditions quite hot through at least early next week. Friday is expected to be a humid day with inland afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees. Heat index values are likely to be about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. A stout cap is expected to keep PoPs low despite the presence of mid/upper disturbances and high PWATs. However, the GFS insists that there will be a more aggressive UL disturbance that will throw strong PVA and its resulting thunderstorm activity into our northern counties. For now, we have opted for slight (~20%) PoPs across our Brazos Valley counties for Friday evening/night. Over the weekend, a mid/upper trough over W CONUS will induce LL cyclogenesis over the central plains. This will veer the low to mid level (850-700mb) flow to the SW, enhancing WAA aloft. These hotter temperatures will "mix" to the surface, allowing for daytime highs to become progressively hotter this weekend into Monday. By Sunday and Monday, most inland areas could be in the mid 90s. Our temperature grids even show a few pockets of upper 90s. Considering the continued high humidity, current projected heat index values would warrant Heat Advisories for the Sunday- Monday time frame. Experimental HeatRisk guidance suggests the heat poses a Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk to health. If you plan to spend time outdoors during the holiday weekend, please practice heat safety such as drinking plentiful water, wearing light colored clothing, and taking breaks (preferably indoors in the AC) if working/playing outside. It is important to remember that drinking alcohol can result in dehydration. So be careful at those outdoor Memorial Day festivities! Also, NEVER forget to LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. NEVER leave children and pets in a hot car. There will also be an enhanced rip current risk at the beaches. Some relief in the heat may arrive after Memorial Day due to an approaching cold front. The front may bring showers and thunderstorms to the area late Monday and Tuesday. For now, we only depict slight PoPs associated with the front. The early outlook for the post-front environment on Tuesday-Wednesday features lower dew points (in the 60s instead of 70s) and high temperatures in the low 90s. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Ceilings have been improving and we should see mostly VFR conditions across the CWA this afternoon into the early evening hours. Isolated to widely scattered showers have been moving across the region since this morning (despite the strong cap in place), but not too sure how much is actually reaching the ground. However, near term guidance is continuing to indicate that we`ll see a round of stronger more organ- ized activity approach and move across the area (mainly the northern to central CWA) starting late this afternon into evening. Have added a TEMPO group for our two most northern terminals (CLL/UTS) with the mention of VCSH to CXO. This may need to be extended south to IAH if model trends continue to push things south. Otherwise...look for the return of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight...with improving conditions by mid to late morning tomorrow. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally moderate southeasterly winds and 3-5 foot seas are expected through the weekend. However, occasionally higher winds and seas are likely. Therefore, caution flags have been issued through Thursday and may need to be extended. We cannot rule out reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at times. Winds are seas are projected to decrease somewhat by early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage (as of ~3AM Wednesday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate MINOR// ------- - Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flooding continues. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 92 77 93 / 50 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 92 78 93 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 79 85 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...41 MARINE...Self