Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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678 FXUS64 KHGX 140840 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The short term will be dominated by surface high pressure and modest ridging aloft. In other words, the short term weather is actually quiet for once! Some communities may encounter fog this morning. Any fog should lift by mid-morning, yielding to a mostly sunny and warm day. The air will be drier, with afternoon dew points averaging in the low/mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the 85 to 90 degree range. Inland temps fall into the 60s tonight (70s at the coast). Couldn`t rule out patchy fog development by Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks similar but with a little more mid/upper ridging than Tuesday. Therefore, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be a little hotter, averaging around 90 degrees for most inland areas (~mid 80s near the coast). Wednesday night is expected to be more humid and a tad warmer. There may even be a few showers after midnight. These showers are a harbinger of the active weather to come. But I will let the long term forecaster dwell on that topic. Enjoy the calm while it lasts! Self && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Still looking for our next best chance of rain in the Thursday-Friday time period as a series of disturbances move across the area in association with the next upper level trough. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along with possible strong/severe storms as moisture levels rise and instability increases. We will need to keep an eye on how the models handle this next system. The current forecast has the highest rainfall totals from I-10 northward with the higher numbers the further northward you go. These higher totals up north (approaching 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible) are across locations that are already saturated, so we might end up needing another Flood Watch. Once this system exits off to the east, a much drier forecast will cover the area over the weekend and into the start of next week. With expected rains/clouds in the area on Thursday and Friday, look for high temperatures mainly in the 80s. With less clouds and no rain over the weekend and into the start of next week, look for high temperatures to warm from an upper 80s to low 90s range on Saturday to the lower 90s for a majority of inland locations on Monday. Morning lows in an upper 60s to low 70s range are anticipated for much of this period. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Mid/high level cloudiness is in the process of thinning and moving off to the east. As this occurs overnight, expecting some fog to develop with wet ground and light winds in place. Currently seeing a few locations to our north flirt with IFR/LIFR conditions, and though confidence in specific locations/timing/details isn`t overly high, see no reason some terminals in SE Tx experience this sometime overnight. SREF seems to favor LBX, CXO, UTS, CLL. Look for any low clouds/fog to burn off by mid morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Maybe some late night fog Tues night west of Highway 288 and south of I-10. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Mainly light north to northwest winds and low seas can be expected today. Winds will come back around to the south and southeast tonight and Wednesday, and this onshore flow will gradually strengthen and persist until another cold front moves off the coast at the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed for the strengthening winds and building seas. Our next chance of rain begins late Wednesday night and continues into the day on Friday. A drier forecast can be expected over the weekend. 42 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The next rounds of heavy rain are expected on Thursday/Friday, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 88 65 90 70 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 85 73 82 75 / 0 0 0 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ163-164- 176>179-196-198-199. GM...None. && $$