Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220150
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
850 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Showers lingering over Liberty and Brazoria Counties this hour are
quickly shrinking with the loss of heating. Depending upon how
much the high cloud cover thins will be determine the extent of
morning fog. Damp grounds and near calm winds per surface high
pressure over eastern Texas should allow at least patchy fog to
develop over many rural counties...locally dense just before
sunrise if skies go completely clear and winds calm. This general
weak troughing/lower height synoptic pattern will persist through
mid week. Low convective temperatures of around 80F and a good 12
plus hours for the atmosphere to recharge should be enough to
have scattered convection forming once again by mid to late
Tuesday morning. Although the mid layers may be a touch drier...
there will be enough lower level moisture (with surface heating)
to generate lift in producing showers with embedded storms. The
highest probability of occurrence appears to over the west-
southwestern forecast area. As the day progresses...more
widespread TSRA coverage spreading further inland is forecast
...or somewhat similar to today`s behavior. Overcast/foggy
morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s will slowly warm into the
middle to upper 80s where PM rain falls...lower 90s over those
communities that stay dry.

Hobby Airport received measurable rain this afternoon. They haven`t
had measurable rain since April 21st and today`s precipitation
ended their consecutive no measurable rainfall string at 29 days.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

AVIATION...
Lingering outflow dominated shra & iso tstms should taper off in
the next few hours with the loss of heating. Should cirrus clear
out overnight, we`ll need to keep an eye on some fog development
considering light winds and damp ground. Otherwise, expecting
mainly VFR conditions, but with some 1500-2500ft ceilings mixed in
late tonight and Tue morning. Upper weakness/troffiness situated over
the area again tomorrow. Think we`ll see some iso/sct development
again with heating and the seabreeze. Doubt we`ll see as much
coverage as today as available moisture levels will be a touch
lower. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  88  70  92  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              69  89  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  85  77  86  77 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31



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