Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

High clouds have limited fog development this morning with only a
few patches of fog showing up in satellite imagery. A few showers
were noted along the coast moving inland. GOES 16 precipitable
water imagery shows 1.7-1.8 inches of PW which should support
mainly scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. These values are
a little lower than yesterday but weak upper trough still remains
over the area. There may be some MVFR ceilings to develop later
this morning but those ceilings should increase with day time
heating. Look for convection to initiate 15-17Z today and last
through the evening. Convection will be outflow dominated and
pulse type. There could be some 30-40kt wind gusts in some of the
stronger storms but will need to amend TAFs for that possibility.
Confidence still low enough to keep VCSH in TAFS and then update



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 354 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/...

.Long Term...
Patchy fog has begun to settle in across portions of
the area this morning with a couple of streamer showers right
along the coast. Expect another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms today, particularly right along the seabreeze this
afternoon. Coverage should generally be a touch lower than
yesterday as available moisture is slightly lower. Inverted V
soundings suggest that gusty winds will be possible with any
stronger cells that are able to develop this afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should quickly taper off after sunset with
the loss of heating.

Wednesday should see even less coverage of showers and storms and
warmer temperatures as upper ridging to the west tries to nudge
closer. For the latter half of the week we end up sandwiched
between upper ridging over West Texas and an upper trof over the
north central Gulf. Most of the rainfall should remain off to the
east over the central Gulf Coast states, but we can`t rule out
some shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern portions of
our area depending where the upper low is positioned. Upper
ridging nudges closer from the west to start out next week,
helping dry things out a bit to close out the forecast period.


Surface analysis at 08Z shows a rather weak pressure gradient across
the NW Gulf, but enough of one to maintain onshore winds. The
pressure gradient may tighten some on Wednesday but then relax
through the end of the week. This means light to moderate winds will
continue and support generally low seas through Saturday.

At this time, forecast models are keeping any type of tropical
cyclone formation over the eastern Gulf for the weekend. We will
continue to monitor forecast data and updates from NHC, but most
likely if there are any impacts it will be higher seas.




College Station (CLL)  88  70  91  71  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)          89  72  92  73  92 /  40  10  30  10  40
Galveston (GLS)        87  77  88  77  88 /  20  10  20  10  30






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