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824
FXUS64 KHGX 212056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Another day of showers and storms in Southeast Texas today. Though
not quite as intense/widespread as yesterday, locations that saw
heavy rain yesterday have been seeing rain again today, which can
exacerbate localized flooding issues.

After today, look for a summer-like conditions to continue, with
gradually warming temperatures back towards the 90s by the weekend.
There will be chances for showers and storms each day, but will
also be of that summertime, scattered, "popcorn" variety.


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Like yesterday, the main story for the rest of the afternoon and
early evening will be the impact of the day`s scattered showers
and thunderstorms. It appears rain has largely ended in the
portions east of Matagorda Bay that had seen heavier rain this
morning, and conditions there should improve this evening. In
parts of northwestern Harris and southwestern Montgomery counties,
places that saw significant rain yesterday are getting more rain
today. Though rain rates are not terribly intense, soil is already
moist from the previous day`s rain, and the cells are moving
fairly slowly. A flood advisory is in effect there currently, and
radar trends will have to be monitored closely to evaluate if
anything more serious will be needed. At the moment, it appears
that rain rates are low enough and cells are moving just enough to
hold off the need for a flash flood warning.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Another shortwave looks to move by the area tomorrow, but for now
models keep it far enough offshore that it should be a bit drier
than today - however, it is close, and any more of a coastward
track may nudge up convective potential tomorrow. Midlevel heights
build a little more for Wednesday, which should nudge high temps
back up towards 90 degrees and keep the weather a little drier
still.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Much of the long term is very much in there thanks to considerable
uncertainty about the behavior of an upper low over the Gulf of
Mexico. There is considerable spread in the model guidance as to
how this feature will behave, which may have significant
implications on our forecast. For now, there`s enough signal in
the guidance that I keep the upper low far enough to our east that
rain chances do not significantly pick up into the weekend, nor
does it prevent temperatures from rising into the lower half of
the 90s each afternoon. That said, these features are forecast
with relatively low skill at long ranges, and so if you have plans
in the late half of the week, you`ll want to keep an eye on how
the forecast evolves in the coming days.

And, as misery loves company, a surface low pressure center of
some sort looks to lift out of the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf.
There`s not much worth saying at this point, but even though we
are not officially in hurricane season, conditions in late May are
not that different from what we`ll see in early June. So, even if
tropical development may not be likely, the chances are higher
than zero. At this point, there`s nothing to be concerned with as
far as impacts to Southeast Texas, but it is a good reminder to
put the finishing touches on your emergency plans and replenish
those kits from last year to be prepared for the approaching
tropical season. If you haven`t visited hurricanes.gov in a while,
it might be worth checking out again for the latest info.
Truthfully, this isn`t really any different than I`d suggest
otherwise at this time of year - we`re doing our standard
preparation for hurricane season here, and we hope you are too.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected to continue this afternoon.
Another round of low ceilings and fog (mainly MVFR) will be
possible again late tonight through tomorrow morning. A majority
of the area should become VFR by late tomorrow or early tomorrow
afternoon with less SHRA/TSRA coverage. 42

&&

.MARINE...

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is
expected to continue through around midweek before
becoming light and variable. Seas should remain
generally in a 1 to 3 foot range. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the week
and possibly on into the weekend. Boaters with
interests in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the forecasts for possible storm
development later this week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  70  88  70  92  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)          71  89  72  92  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        77  83  77  86  77 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...42
MARINE...42