721
FXUS64 KHGX 071635
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Expect daily development of showers and thunderstorms through
  the end of the week, peaking in the afternoons.

- Locally heavy downpours are the primary concern from the
  strongest of these daily rounds of storms.

- We may see a shift in the pattern towards a hotter and drier
  setup late in the week, but the precise timing of this shift is
  quite uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Our region is beginning to feel the influence of a mid/upper low
that is currently in the Gulf, centered south of Louisiana. This
low will continue it`s slow westward progression over the next few
days, enhancing shower/thunderstorm chances across southeast
Texas through Wednesday. By Thursday, SE Texas may experience the
influence of another trough that builds southwestward from the
Midwest into the Arklatex. With continuously high PWATs in place,
the added lift from these mid/upper disturbance will result in
daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Not
every community will receive rain each day. But those that do
could experience locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Ridging may try to build by the end of the week / weekend. But
long range models have consistently over estimated ridging beyond
5 or 6 days. When looking at the day-to-day forecast, you may
notice that Friday`s rain chances are the lowest of the week. This
is due to the lower PWATs indicated by the global models on that
day.

Regarding temperatures, inland afternoon highs are expected to
average in the low/mid 90s, with coastal areas generally around
90. It will remain quite humid. A few areas may achieve the upper
90s by the end of the week if ridging manages to build enough.
Generally speaking, these values are pretty normal for this time
of year. But even normal southeast Texas July heat is hazardous,
especially to sensitive groups (example: elderly and young
children) and for people doing moderate to strenuous physical
activity outside.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Locally heavy tsra
possible. Shra/tsra should diminish this evening. Mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. However, sub-VFR conditions are
likely within heavier tsra. There may also be localized areas of
MVFR cigs and vis tomorrow morning. Shra possible tomorrow morning
south of I-10, expanding farther inland by the afternoon. Tsra
will be possible again by the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of
the week. Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected
through Wednesday. Occasionally higher gusts up to 15 to 20 knots
are possible, particularly later in the week. Winds and seas may
increase towards the end of the week along with the increase in
winds. Locally higher winds and seas possible in the vicinity of
any thunderstorm that develops over the bays and Gulf waters this
week.

At the coast, the generally onshore winds will boost water levels
above astronomical norms, and guidance suggests several high tides
with levels above 2.5 feet above MLLW - more similar to highest
astronomical tides, when those would generally be above a foot
lower, near MHHW. Still, this is pretty safely below any coastal
flooding concerns. Similarly, while risk for rip currents is not
low because of the persistent onshore winds, rip current risk (and
observed strength per Galveston Beach Patrol) looks to be more
moderate for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  73  92 /  10  40  10  40
Houston (IAH)  76  92  75  93 /  10  70  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  90 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs