694
FXUS64 KHGX 101814
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
afternoon, mainly east of I-45. The best rain and storm chances
return this weekend.

- A daily risk of showers and storms continues in the next 7 days,
though coverage is expected to be less as we head into the upcoming
week.

- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
  seasonal temperatures through the weekend, before gradually
  warming up next week. Remember to keep practicing heat safety!
  Make sure to take breaks if spending time or working outside and
  stay hydrated.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A notable shift in the weather pattern this afternoon compared to
yesterday. A drier airmass has filtered in from the northwest,
leading to a significant drop in rain and storm chances. This drier
influence is evident across areas west of I-45, where skies have
become less active and mostly sunny. Taking a look at the latest
Blended TPW satellite, a corridor of higher PWs is still persisting
in areas roughly east of I-45, with values at or above 2.0 inches.
This pocket of higher moisture combined with the peak of daytime
heating will provide enough fuel to support isolated to scattered
convection through sunset. Will continue with 15 to 30% of PoPs
mainly east of I-45, including the greater Houston area through
early this evening.

Southeast Texas remains sandwiched between two areas of high
pressure aloft. Adding to this set up, a surface high pressure
remains anchored across the eastern/central Gulf, maintaining a
steady supply of warm and humid southerly flow across the region.
This pattern will maintain largely similar weather conditions each
day, with a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms
and warm conditions. Friday is expected to be similar to today
(Thursday) with the best rain/storm chances developing across the
coastal counties and over the Gulf waters. Remember, continuous
southerly and humid flow can enhance moisture convergence and
trigger showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon heating.

A slightly more active pattern is expected this weekend, with an
uptick in moisture, and rain and storm chances. Increasing moisture
advection from the Gulf and the development of some trough weakness
aloft will be enough to spark showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day.

Beyond the weekend, the long-range forecast indicates a shift
towards hotter conditions and slightly lower precipitation
chances. The ridge to our east is projected to strengthen and
shift westward, directly influencing Southeast TX. So, ridging
aloft usually means hot conditions. In fact, temperatures are
expected to be near the 90th percentile of climatology based on
NAEFS and GEFS (mostly after Tuesday). Overall, expect highs
mainly in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices close to
advisory levels. In terms of precipitation, while more stable air
will move in, persistent southerly surface flow will keep low-
level moisture and convergence across parts of the region,
particularly in the afternoons. 15 to 30% of PoPs are progged each
day.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Widely scattered shra may impact our northern terminals (CLL,
UTS) this morning. Spotty shra offshore expected to move towards
the coast as the morning progresses. By late morning and early
afternoon, isolated to scattered shra/tsra expected to develop
in the vicinity of the sea breeze. Not much model agreement
regarding coverage with some suggesting scattered activity while
others calling for more isolated shra/tsra. Prevailing SW wind
develops this morning, then veers to the S and potentially SE this
afternoon. May have MVFR cigs tomorrow morning in the Brazos
Valley. For now, CLL TAF shows lower end VFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Surface high pressure remains strong across the central Gulf. This
pattern will continue to bring south to southwest light to moderate
winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft across the Upper TX coast over the
next several days. A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms is also expected. Most of this activity will occur in
the mornings offshore and along the coast and bays (further inland)
after midday. Gusty winds can be expected around any storms. This
weather pattern is expected to continue over the next 7 days.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  92  75  90 /  10  10   0  60
Houston (IAH)  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  70
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /  20  20  30  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM