176
FXUS64 KHGX 111122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected today.

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage/chances will increase this
  weekend. Then, a gradually decrease in storms is possible as we
  near the mid-week period.

- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
  seasonal temperatures through the weekend, before gradually
  warming up next week. Remember to keep practicing heat safety!
  Make sure to take breaks if spending time or working outside and
  stay hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will prevail through
early next week as Southeast TX continue to be wedged between a
high pressure systems situated over SW CONUS and another high
pressure system situated over the eastern Gulf and SE CONUS,
allowing for weaknesses to pass overhead. For today (Friday), we
will likely see similar conditions to yesterday, except with
slightly more coverage in showers and thunderstorms (~20-40% PoPs)
as moisture recovers a little more. By Saturday, rain chances
will increase as an upper level trough moves across the Southern
Plains, a weak vort max lingers aloft, and PWs rise to 1.9-2.1
inches. We are expecting isolated to scattered showers to start
over the Gulf and coastal locations during the early morning
hours, followed by scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing further inland during the mid morning to
late afternoon hours. Storms are expected to dissipate during the
late evening to early night hours. These storms may end up being
efficient rain makers, with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour
possible and could lead to ponding of water along roads and poor
drainage areas. Thus, make sure to take a peek at the radar and
traffic conditions before departing to your destination. Remember
to never cross flooded roads. In addition, stronger storms can
produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. If you plan to
spend time or work outdoors, if thunder roars, head indoors.
Similar conditions, but with maybe a little less storm coverage,
can be expected on Sunday.

A decreasing trend in rain coverage/chances is possible Monday
into the mid-week period. The rains and cloud coverage have
allowed us to enjoy the high temperatures peaking in the lower
90s for much of region these past few days. However, the decrease
in rain activity could mean hotter conditions as we progress into
the mid-week period, with highs possibly rising into the mid and
upper 90s for portions of Southeast TX. Heat indices could rise
to near Advisory criteria in some spots. Let`s hope the models
change their minds and keep us on the current cooler summer trend.

;D

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Spotty showers expected this morning, mostly south of I-10. Any
localized sub-VFR conditions should trend VFR by 15Z. Isolated to
scattered shra/tsra expected late morning into the afternoon
today. S to SE winds expected to increase and become gusty at
times, possibly gusting over 20 knots. Sustained winds are
expected to generally be in the 10-15 knot range. Shra/tsra
activity will diminish this evening along with decreasing winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4
feet will persist for the next several days. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated through early next week, then a
gradual decrease in activity is possible. For the next few days,
the weather pattern will be a "rinse and repeat" with showers and
thunderstorms developing along the Gulf waters and coastal
locations during the early morning to early afternoon hours,
followed by activity moving further inland during the mid
afternoon to evening hours. However, a strong storm or two cannot
be discarded during that timeframe, in particular over the bays.
Stronger storms could produce strong gusty winds, outflow
boundaries, and higher seas at times.

Along the Gulf facing beaches, persistent onshore flow will
result in a moderate risk of rip currents. High risk of rip
currents could occur at times. Please follow the beach flag
conditions, and always swim near a lifeguard.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  76  91  75 /  20   0  60  10
Houston (IAH)  92  78  91  77 /  40  10  70  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  83 /  20  30  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto