Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
934 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase through
the afternoon. Lack of steering flow will allow for slow moving
storms, so any prolonged heavy rainfall could lead to nuisance
flooding of low-lying areas. Inverted-V soundings also indicate
potential for strong wind gusts with any stronger storms that may
develop. Otherwise, high temperatures near 90 with lows tonight
in the low-70s. Temperature forecast is on track, so only POP and
Wx grids were updated. 22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Radar is active again this morning so the main concern will be
convection over the next 12 hours. Overall a mix of MVFR/VFR
ceilings this morning with TSRA at KGLS and SHRA developing
towards KHOU and even KIAH. Given atmospheric moisture is about
the same as yesterday, the overall thinking is for similar timing
of TSRA/SHRA today with most activity starting along the coast
affecting KLBX/KGLS and then moving inland later in the morning
through the afternoon. Convection should come to an end around
21-23Z today. Overnight expect mainly VFR but again will need to
monitor for patchy fog or low ceilings.


PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 426 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/...
Patchy fog has once again begun to settle in over portions of the
area this morning with some light showers along the coast. Expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms today with gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall possible. Coverage should be a little
less than what we saw yesterday.

Upper ridging currently over West Texas nudges closer through the
weekend, gradually diminishing our daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Monday, the ridge axis settles in over Central
Texas and dominates our weather through the rest of the forecast
period. This brings an end to the precipitation and a return to
near record heat. Forecast high temperatures in the mid 90s are
expected Sunday through Thursday with heat index values over 100.
This near-record heat coupled with holiday weekend festivities
will make heat safety messaging extremely important.


Surface analysis at 09Z shows a weak area of high pressure over
Louisiana with a weak pressure gradient across much of Texas. Winds
have turned more easterly and onshore winds should continue around
10 knots for the next several days. Seas should remain around 2-3
feet offshore and 1-2 feet near shore through the weekend.

We continue to monitor the possibility of tropical cyclone formation
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for Friday into the weekend. At this
time, no impacts are expected other than maybe higher seas if a
tropical system forms.



College Station (CLL)      89  70  91  71  93 /  30  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              89  72  91  73  94 /  50  20  40  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            86  77  87  77  88 /  50  20  40  10  20




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