Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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072
FXUS64 KHGX 230913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog has begun to settle in across portions of the area
again this morning with some very isolated showers over the
waters and right along the coast. Much like the past several days,
any fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected today, although short term
guidance is suggesting higher coverage than yesterday. Model
soundings indicate PWs between 1.7 and 2 inches, which is up from
yesterday and likely the cause of the higher coverage. Soundings
also indicate an inverted V again this afternoon, so gusty winds
will remain a threat with the stronger storms. Showers and storms
should diminish after sunset with loss of heating.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible each
day heading into the weekend, but the better potential will shift
off to the east as upper level ridging pushes into West Texas.
Conditions look much drier heading into the start of next week as
we are sandwiched between upper ridging over West Texas and an
upper low over the N Central Gulf. Models are also indicating the
possibility of some tropical development in the eastern or central
Gulf, taking the center of the surface low anywhere from E
Louisiana to Florida. This should keep the better rain potential
well off to our east. However, with dry conditions and upper
ridging sliding even closer, high temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 90s by early next week with heat index values in the
low to mid 100s. If realized, this would give us another multi-
day run at record high temperatures across the area. Given the
onset of these hot temperatures this early in the year coupled
with the upcoming holiday weekend, heat safety and check the
backseat messaging will be paramount.

11
&&

.MARINE...
Surface analysis at 08Z shows a weak pressure gradient across much
of Texas. Onshore winds should continue around 10 knots for the next
several days with seas around 2-3 feet offshore and 1-2 feet near
shore.

We continue to monitor the possibility of tropical cyclone formation
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for Friday into the weekend. At this
time, no impacts are expected other than maybe higher seas. That is
if something forms to begin with.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      89  70  90  71  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              89  72  90  73  93 /  50  20  30  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            86  77  86  77  87 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...39



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