Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 181121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR to LIFR conditions exist across the area this
morning due to a mixture of fog and low ceilings over most of the
inland sites. All sites should improve to VFR throughout the
morning with southerly winds expected today and tonight. Another
round of low ceilings are possible early Saturday morning, however
fog looks less likely as the winds should stay a little stronger
overnight.  11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
At 3 AM, weak high pressure was noted over the western Gulf
and lower pressures were over eastern New Mexico. At 300 mb, a
strong upper high was located over northern Mexico with a NW flow
over SE TX. At 850 mb, weak high pressure was over SE TX and 850
temps were 22 C at CRP with most of SE TX at or above 20 C. The
warm 850 temps will once again translate into very warm surface
temperatures and highs today will once again warm into the
lower/middle 90`s inland and mid/upper 80`s along the coast.
Surface winds will back to the south today and some marine
influence may modify surface temps a bit. The southerly winds will
also start to bring back more low level moisture and surface dew
points will not mix out as efficiently as the past couple of days.
It will also lead to warmer temperatures tonight. The dominant upper
level ridge retreats slightly on Saturday as a short wave moves
across the central plains. Moisture levels still look too sparse
to generate much precipitation but slightly cooler 850 temps
should allow for slightly cooler surface temperatures.

Some changes on the way for Sunday/Monday as moisture levels
increase. PW values increase to 1.4-1.5 inches. The ECMWF and GFS
differ with the strength of the upper ridging with the ECMWF being
weaker. Both the ECMWF and the Canadian generate precipitation
both days while the GFS is less aggressive with rain chances. The
ridge never really goes away so have a nagging feeling the GFS may
be the way to go. 300 mb winds show a weak but splitting jet over
East Texas both days so will still mention low PoPs both days.

Upper level ridging over northern Mexico builds back into the
area for the second half of next week while a trough of low
pressure develops over the western Gulf. At this time it looks
like SE TX will remain on the west/dry side of the trough and our
weather will once again be dominated by the upper ridge. 43

Climate...The average high temperature for the first 17 days of
May is now the warmest on record for the city of Houston (89.1)
and is tied for the warmest on record for the city of Galveston
(84.1). It`s the 4th warmest at Hobby (87.6) and the 15th warmest
at College Station (87.5). 43

MARINE...
Southerly winds today will strengthen tonight as low pressure
develops over the Texas Panhandle. At least caution flags will
likely be required tonight with possibly a Small Craft Advisory.
Winds/seas will weaken a touch going into early next week, but
onshore winds should continue through the period.  11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  72  93  72  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              94  73  93  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            86  78  86  79  85 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...11



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