Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
515 FXUS63 KSGF 151130 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 630 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (30-65%) today (Sunday) east of Highway 65. Total rainfall amounts generally less than half an inch, though far south-central MO may see up to 0.75". Most locations to the west to remain dry. - Below average temperatures Sunday, with a warming trend beginning on Monday and continuing through the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A very broad surface high associated with an upper-level ridge is poised over the eastern Great Lakes, while a compact upper-level low associated with an inverted surface trough is centered over the Arkansas Delta. The low (remnants of "Francine") has become stuck in place as it weakens, with the broad high to the northeast blocking it from further northward progression. This synoptic pattern will continue, with a ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies further holding this disturbance just southeast of CWA boundaries at least through Monday. Persistent cloud cover associated with this disturbance is also being held in place over the eastern Ozarks, with low stratus reducing visibilities as it builds down. West Plains (KUNO) recorded half mile visibilities associated with fog early Sunday morning, and these reduced visibilities could linger across the eastern Ozarks under the cloud deck through sunrise. After sunrise, the ceilings will begin to lift, though overcast skies will remain mostly inmotile with the exception of a slow expansion west through the day Sunday. A modest east-west temperature gradient will develop this afternoon due to the contrast between clear skies in the west and thick cloud cover to the east. Highs will range from upper 80s (near 90) along the KS/MO border, while temperatures will only reach the mid-70s underneath the clouds. Easterly winds may become a bit gusty this afternoon as well, up into the 20-25mph range. However, the biggest story with this synoptic feature is the rain chances beginning as early as the mid-morning. SBCAPE values around 1000J/kg could support development of convective precipitation in central Missouri as a burst of upper-level energy pushes through. Further south, rain will be far more dependent on the synoptic disturbance. Precipitation will be constrained to the area beneath the clouds, remaining east of Highway 65 regardless of forcing. Confidence is high in our southeasternmost counties (specifically Howell, Oregon, Shannon, and Ozark) seeing appreciable accumulations between 0.1-0.5", and HREF LPMMs hint at a potential scenario where far southern Howell and Oregon counties could see up to an inch of rain. PoPs in the eastern Ozarks will remain in the 30-60% range through the evening, with a sharp spatial decrease in chances (near 0%) west of Highway 65. Coverage will also decrease with northward extent, likely being continuous in far southern Missouri and becoming more shower-like further north. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Low rain chances (5-30%) linger into Monday, and PoPs reflect scattered showers with low (if any) measurable accumulations. An upper-level ridge will slowly start to build back into the area as the week progresses and the synoptic pattern breaks the block, with temperatures gradually warming through the week. Highs in the 80s on Monday will warm enough to flirt with late-season 90s along and west of the I-49 corridor by Wednesday, and warm temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s will continue through Friday. Low temperatures in the 60s will follow this warming trend as well. PoPs remain below 15% through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Light easterly winds early Sunday morning will strengthen into the afternoon, with gusts up to 25kts possible between 18Z Sunday and 00Z Monday. JLN: Remains VFR through the TAF period; some clouds to intrude from the east, but don`t linger past sunset. SGF: Mostly VFR with the exception of a switch to MVFR in the last hour of the TAF period. Low-level clouds intruding from the east as the period progresses, reducing ceilings below 10kft this afternoon and gradually deteriorating early Monday morning. BBG: A very low stratus deck has been causing sporadic, dramatic decreases in CIG/VIS in the hours leading up to 12Z but the IFR celings have hopefully stabilized, and conditions should improve to MVFR within a couple hours of sunrise. Low chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and IFR conditions expected to return overnight into Monday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden