792
FXUS64 KFWD 201821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

Weak ridging aloft will continue to keep the weather conditions
quiet today and tonight. Temperatures today will range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s with gusty southerly winds in place. The
ongoing gusts will quickly subside around sunset as the near-
surface environment decouples from the faster winds aloft.

Tonight, expect low temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal
with a shroud of clouds moving in from the south. This cloud
cover will linger through the morning hours before dissipating
early tomorrow morning.

An incoming shortwave will nudge the ridge eastward tomorrow as a
dryline sharpens in the afternoon. Although the atmosphere will
remain fairly capped much of the day, there is a low potential a
storm or two develop along the dryline. The dryline should be
positioned just west of our area in the afternoon. If a storm does
develop, storms should shift northeast. With mixed-layer CAPE
over 3000 J/Kg and lapse rates near 8 C/km, any storm would be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Again, the
potential for any storm developing is low but non-zero. Afternoon
temperatures tomorrow will remain fairly similar to today -- upper
80s in the east to mid 90s west.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
Update:
The long term forecast, as detailed below, is still valid and no
major changes are needed at this time. We are still thinking the
best storm chances this week will accompany a cold front in the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with a potential for severe storms
and heavy rain.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this
upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist
overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have
made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave
disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east
into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our
northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near
the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave
disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into
Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to
make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but
exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this
time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it
too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The
NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region
before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with
moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and
ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid-
level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to
move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to
regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing
shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong
to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift
skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated
storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as
additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The
heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the
90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will
be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make
sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety
this upcoming weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Gusty southerly winds this afternoon. MVFR stratus
returns tonight.

Gusty southerly winds with mostly clear skies are ongoing at this
time and will continue through the rest of this afternoon. Wind
speeds continue to range between 10-20 mph with some gusts
approaching 30 mph. As we approach sunset today, expect wind
speeds to gradually subside.

Tonight, a stratus intrusion is expected, reducing cloud heights
to around 1500 feet AGL. This intrusion will make its way
northward through the early morning Tuesday morning hours,
impacting all TAF sites across the region. The stratus deck is
expected to gradually disperse late in the morning with mid-level
clouds remaining in place.

There is a potential for an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow
afternoon west of the D10 airspace. Given the isolated nature of
the storms, impact to air traffic should remain minimal.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  90  75  88  71 /   0  10  10  40  60
Waco                73  92  75  88  72 /   0   5   5  20  30
Paris               69  87  74  86  68 /   0   5   5  50  70
Denton              73  89  72  86  68 /   0  10  10  40  60
McKinney            73  88  74  86  68 /   0  10  10  40  60
Dallas              74  91  76  90  71 /   0  10   5  30  50
Terrell             71  89  75  87  70 /   0   5   5  30  50
Corsicana           74  90  76  89  74 /   0   5   0  20  30
Temple              73  90  75  88  73 /   0   5   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       73  91  73  87  69 /   0  20  10  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$