819
FXUS63 KLBF 242336
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Strong to severe storms possible Saturday

*Precipitation chances continue into Sunday, but should be dry for
Memorial Day

*Additional precipitation chances by mid-week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The remainder of the afternoon and evening will be dry,
then focus will turn on the next system moving in from  The main
concern in the short term will be thunderstorm development on
Saturday. Moisture returns back to the area with surface dew points
in the 40s and 50s. Did leave a little a slight chance for morning
convection across far northern Nebraska, capped it at 20%, where WAA
may help to get a sprinkles or light showers. Thunderstorm chances
increase heading into the afternoon hours as the low pressure system
moves east out of Colorado with a warm front advancing northward
from the south, with the triple point moving into northwest KS.
There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
late afternoon and evening, would generally say between 4pm and 9pm
for the greatest threat of severe potential. Severe threat should be
confined to southwest Nebraska and potentially into north central
Nebraska by the evening hours, although thunderstorms will be
possible across western Nebraska as well, the chance for severe
storms is less. With storms across southwestern and north central
Nebraska the environment will be favorable for an  isolated threat
of large hail and damaging winds as marginally steep lapse rates and
CAPE values around 1500 J/kg will be possible in the afternoon and
evening. There is also an isolated threat for a tornado across
southwest Nebraska, given the close proximity to the triple point.
Most of the strong or severe convection should be out of the area by
by late evening, however showers and thunderstorms will still remain
possible through the overnight hours.

As for Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the day, but the risk of severe weather is low. Temperatures will be
cooler with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska, with low to mid 70s across
far southwestern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Drier conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. A
upper level ridge builds in from the west, with disturbances coming
in later in the week bringing more chances for showers and
thunderstorms by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Expect mainly clear skies this evening with increasing high
clouds overnight. Expect scattered to broken ceilings of 20000
to 25000 FT AGL Saturday morning, persisting into the afternoon
hours. Thunderstorms may impact the KLBF terminal toward 00z
Sunday. At this time the main threat should be after 00z Sunday
and will not mention the threat of thunder with this TAF
forecast package.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler