Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLBF 160500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A challenging forecast, with temperatures very close or just below
freezing making precipitation type difficult to forecast. Most
models agree that temperatures will fall to near freezing across
most of north central Nebraska late tonight, and then hover in the
30 to 32 degree range most of the day Friday. Warm layer aloft
really doesn`t erode till Friday afternoon, so much of the
precipitation will fall as rain or sleet. So with the temperatures
expected to be just below freezing, icing will likely occur. This
seems most likely along and north of highway 20 across north
central Nebraska. Farther west across northwest Nebraska, the warm
layer aloft will be more shallow and will erode more quickly.
More snow will fall across this area as a result. Have issued a
winter storm warning for potential quarter inch ice accumulations
across north central Nebraska, and will continue the warning
across northwest Nebraska for several inches of snow and light ice
accumulation. Surrounding the warning will be a winter weather
advisory where less snow and ice accumulation are expected.

Some thunder will be possible initially this evening across
southwest Nebraska where elevated cape will exist. Some concern
about moisture, but models show a fairly rapidly moistening of the
column this evening. Otherwise gusty east winds, possibly as high
as 40 mph as the surface low deepens across northeast Colorado.
There will be enough dynamic cooling that a change over to wet
snow will be possible across southwest Nebraska around midday
Friday. At this time an inch or less of accumulation is expected,
and mainly on grassy surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The main sensible weather concerns in the long term period revolve
around a winter storm ending tomorrow night and then another
winter system impacting the area Sunday night-Monday. The large
scale pattern features a 500 hPa closed low that will be near
eastern NEB early Friday night. This closed low will be weakening
into an open wave as it moves eastward. Thereafter 500 hPa height
rises spread across the region through Saturday as an upper-level
ridge builds in behind. This will provide somewhat of a reprieve
until the next weather system arrives. While precipitation should
be coming to an end by late evening Friday night, profiles
continue to suggest precipitation type concerns. This could be
attributable to lack of ice in-cloud/in the upper-level cloud
layer. Thus primarily a wintry mix to freezing rain is anticipated
at the end of the winter event early tomorrow night with respect
to precipitation type. Overall, precipitation will be light Friday
night in terms of the QPF. Highs will then be 10-20 degrees
warmer Saturday compared to Friday as the ridge builds. This would
place highs generally near seasonable values.

Deterministic guidance are in fair agreement with another
shortwave trough ejecting into the Southern Plains late Sunday and
developing into a closed low. The 500 hPa closed low is forecast
to move across OK by early Monday. Western NEB will then be under
northwest flow aloft Monday night through Tuesday night. An upper-
level ridge will build across the western CONUS and extend from
the Southwest US-Northern Plains by Wednesday. While details
regarding the winter system are still in question, light
measurable snow appears likely with the heaviest amounts in the
Sandhills. Initial thoughts are precip should changeover to snow
Sunday night with overall precipitation type concerns appearing
low at the moment. Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday
through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Precipitation will increase in coverage and flight categories
become a concern overnight through tomorrow. A storm system will
move east through the Central Plains on Friday. Initially rain
will then change to/or mix with freezing rain and will impact
much of northern Nebraska, including KVTN toward 12z. Precip will
changeover to a mix of snow tomorrow across northern and possibly
into southwest Nebraska. Some ice accumulations are possible
across northern Nebraska, with up to a quarter inch of ice
accumulation. Elsewhere, rain will be the predominant p-type
across southwest Nebraska and the southern Sandhills. Thunder a
possibility into the early morning hours. Ceilings will
deteriorate tonight becoming IFR with across much of western and
north central Nebraska on Friday.


Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Friday for NEZ004-005-094.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday
for NEZ026>029.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Friday for NEZ022>025-056.



AVIATION...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.