Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1135 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018
Widespread rainfall event across western and north central Nebraska
last night has raised flooding concerns along the North Platte River
and flash flood concerns for tonight. Isolated thunderstorms
continue to develop over western Nebraska this afternoon. Forecast
focus on severe potential and heavy rainfall. Position of cold
front will be focus for thunderstorms this evening as stronger
wave moves out of the upper low to the west. Best dynamics over
the southwest this afternoon in area of best convergence along the
cool front. Numerous boundaries left over from last nights and
this mornings convection. Most notable boundary moving south from
KMCK to KLEX. Marginal risk continues over the forecast area this
afternoon. Increasing cloud cover expected with the heating of the
day and instability increases. Surface low over southeast
Colorado filling slightly the last several hours. 3hr pressure
change has +2mb over northeast Colorado and -1mb over the central
Nebraska Sandhills. Short term models picking up on this
convective development ahead of major 500mb wave moving out of the
west. Best dynamics occur between 2z and 6z with focus to the
southwest and then a widespread rain event over western and north
central Nebraska over night. Sbcapes not that impressive.

Dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon and this
mornings sounding had PW at 0.97 and DDC at 1.05...160 to 170 percent
of normal. Rivers over western Nebraska have increased and will
continue the flood watch. Have issued 2 flood warnings on the
North Platte river with anticipated rainfall tonight. A large
swath of rain forecast over the Sandhills that will hold a lot of
precipitation with minimal impacts. Will take a closer look before
zone issuance. Added Perkins County to flood watch with ffg`s
exceeded. 24 hour total 2 to 2.50 inches across most of western
Nebraska. Precipitation continues along cool front through the day
on Saturday with highs in the 50s...widespread moderate rain

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Upper low moves across southwest Nebraska Saturday evening with
rain continuing..ending through the day on Sunday. Ridge builds
back in through the first part of the week with temperatures
rising into the 70s and 80s Tuesday through Friday. Some afternoon
and evening thunderstorms each day with more organized weather on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact the terminal through 12z Saturday morning. Visibilities may
drop off as low as 2SM overnight. Periods of rain are expected on
Saturday with ceilings ranging from 1000 to 1500 FT AGL. The
threat for rain will end after 00z Sunday. For the KVTN terminal:
Ceilings will fall to MVFR levels toward 12z Saturday. Light rain
showers are expected Saturday afternoon with the threat ending
toward 23z Saturday. Ceilings will improve to VFR levels after 23z


Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Saturated ground with 2 to 4 inches of precipitation over western
Nebraska last night. Have expended the flash flood watch to
include Perkins County. PW`s continue to increase over western
Nebraska around 160 percent of normal. Slow movement of storms and
training will create problems tonight and tomorrow with an extra 1
to 2 inches of precipitation.


Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NEZ022-035>038-056>059.



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