Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Isolated instability showers and thunderstorms should diminish
early this evening across the central and eastern zones. During
the late evening and overnight, northwest flow aloft with a few
embedded disturbances will bring a slight chance for showers and
a few thunderstorms to parts of north central Nebraska and also
southwest Nebraska. The slight chance will linger across west
central and southwest Nebraska overnight. Models differ on timing
and coverage, for low chances. Lows tonight from near 50s west to
near 55 east with a partly cloudy sky.

A slight chance for showers until mid morning west central and
southwest. Warmer h85 temps from 16-21C to bring highs from 80-82
degrees. A partly to at times mostly cloudy skies into the
afternoon will limit the warmup slightly. A slight chance for late
afternoon thunderstorms for all areas except the far southeast
zones. A few strong storms are possible, given h85 computed capes
from 500-1000 j/kg west of highway 83 late afternoon into early

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Thursday...Deep southwesterly flow aloft will be in place as an
upper trough moves across the Great Basin. A surface winds
increase to 15 to 25 mph, dewpoints will climb into the upper 50s.
MUCAPE should reach 2500 j/kg in the western panhandle and
northeast Colorado, where storms initiate with 0-6km shear over
30kts. isolated supercell storms to our west should congeal into a
line as it moves across the forecast area overnight.

Friday... Another round of severe storms possible from late Friday
afternoon through Friday night. A warm front should become
positioned near the Nebraska/Kansas border by Friday evening.
Storms are likely to develop north of this front and also to our
west, then become fairly widespread overnight. With MUCAPES near
or above 4k J/KG and 0-3 km shear 30-40 kts, severe storms are
expected near and south of highway 2.

Saturday... Behind the advancing cold front, H85 temps fall below
5C, and combined with the thick cloud cover and at least scattered
showers, highs will be held in the 50s.

Sunday and Monday... looks to be dry and cool as surface high
pressure influences the region. Highs Sunday in the low to mid
60s and low 70s Monday.

By Tuesday, fairly zonal flow aloft and a return flow of warmth
and moisture will bring a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms by afternoon. Highs should return to the upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Convective clouds continue over western Nebraska this afternoon as
temperatures rise into the lower 70s. They should continue
scattered in nature and dissipate quickly through the evening as
temperatures cool. Surface high pressure over head and winds will
be light and variable tonight with some high clouds moving in from
the west.




LONG TERM...Roberg
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