Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Surface high pressure will be in place early this morning,
with light winds, clear skies, and recent rainfall leading to fog
development across southwest Nebraska early this morning. The
surface high will move east of the area later today with return
southerly flow developing. This will draw a warmer and more moist
airmass back into the region, with the NAM and GFS indicating dew
points rising into the middle and upper 50s by late this afternoon.

Surface cyclogenesis will take place across northeast CO in response
to a deep upper trough of low pressure that will be digging into the
southwest CONUS. NAM and GFS both indicate SBCAPE nearing 2500 J/KG
late this afternoon with around 35 KT of bulk shear, lingering into
this evening. At the surface there is really no defined boundary to
initiate convection this afternoon, and with only weak mid level
forcing have opted to keep the afternoon hours dry despite the
instability. Mid level warm air advection increases tonight as a mid
level warm front moves northeast across the area. A healthy
southerly low level jet will also be present. In response the mid
levels become quite unstable, with around 1700 J/KG of CAPE at
H750mb. Don`t feel comfortable going completely dry given the
aforementioned factors. Most models have little in the way of QPF,
and this is likely due to weak overall forcing. However, the CAMS
and GFS do hint at some convective potential, and this supports at
least a slight chance for thunderstorms given the instability and
mid level warm air advection.

It does finally warm up some today, with increased sunshine and
southerly low level flow helping temperatures to climb into the mid
and upper 70s. Mild tonight with lows in the mid 50s to around 60

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Southerly low level flow will continue Tuesday through Thursday, as
an upper level low across the southwest CONUS fills and moves
northeast towards the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a couple of
weak shortwaves will move northeast across the area within southwest
flow aloft. Both Tuesday and Wednesday nights expect a chance for
thunderstorms, as afternoon High Plains convection moves eastward
overnight aided by a southerly LLJ.

On Thursday, the remnants of southwest CONUS upper low will track
eastward from the northern Rockies, and cross southern Canada and
the Northern Plains. This will drag a weak Pacific cold front
southeast across the area Thursday night with the chance for
thunderstorms. In the front`s wake, most of the Memorial Day weekend
is looking dry and seasonably warm. There will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Memorial Day itself, as the GFS and GEFS develop
another trough into the western CONUS.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Mostly clear over western Nebraska with increasing high clouds
moving out of northeast Colorado and then MVFR ceilings over eastern
Nebraska should move to the northwest through the early morning
hours. Light southeast winds will aid in the development of fog
along river valleys.


Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ037-038-



LONG TERM...Taylor
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