Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212350
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The primary forecast challenges through Sunday are temperatures and
fog potential. The upper low responsible for the showers and cool
weather pushes into the southern Plains, but light southeast winds
tonight may result in fog.

This evening and tonight... Rain intensity and coverage decreases
this evening as the upper low pulls away from Nebraska and
isentropic downglide takes over. The main pattern influences turn
toward a building mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and a sfc high
over the Upper Midwest. Southeasterly flow relaxes this evening. Dew
points hold nearly steady in the lower/mid 30s and surface moisture
is high from previous rain, increasing fog chances. The best
combination of the aforementioned factors generally lie west of Hwy
83. Kept overnight lows toward the warmer end of guidance due to fog
and stratus.

Sunday... Southerly low level flow resumes with the sfc high moving
farther east and an H85 thermal ridge setting up. Fair conditions
and modest WAA should result in milder temps with highs near 60F. A
couple concerns that could result in cooler highs are fog duration
and more expansive cloud cover than forecast, given slight upslope
flow at H85 and a broad moisture shield with the upper low. However,
with a small spread in guidance, felt confident with a MAV/MET
blend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

An upper trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest into
western Montana and Idaho. Ahead of this system, milder air will
be drawn northward into the region. A mild day Monday, with highs
in the mid 60s. Yet, these highs will barely be above normal by a
degrees or two. A cold front will move through the forecast area
Monday night as the upper trough and closed low begin to move into
the region. Showers are likely Monday evening west of highway 61.
Enough instability exist for a few thunderstorms possible for
those area as well. After midnight, rain likely through most of
the central FA. The NAM is slower than the GFS with the cold
front and upper low, with the closed low forecast over the central
panhandle by 12z Tuesday. Rainfall amounts from a quarter inch to
over a third inch possible west of Valentine through Broken Bow
overnight. Depending on the location of a closed low, enough cold
air with 850mb temps a few degrees below 0C could result in light
snow across mainly west of highway 61 Tuesday morning, so this
will nee to be followed closely. Higher were trended down a few
more degrees to the mid and upper 40s northwest, to the lower 50s
far southeast. Northwest winds to range from 15 to 30 mph behind
the front going into Tuesday. Otherwise, rain chances from 40 to
60 percent on Tuesday, with the higher chance northwest and north.
Models continue to diverge in the forecast track of this system
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The ECMWF is slowest and furthest
west, as it forecasts the upper low center near Gillette, WY and
keeping rain chance forecast through Tuesday night. The official
forecast reduces POPs and ends from north to south overnight.

The rest of the week, Wednesday through Saturday, northwest flow
aloft will prevail. A cold front is forecast to pass through
Wednesday night, cooling highs to the upper 50s and northwest
winds 20-30 mph. Upper ridging Friday and Saturday will return
highs to the mid 60s Friday and upper 60s to around 70 by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight, especially at the KLBF
terminal with MVFR CIGS expected overnight. Some patchy fog is
possible after 10z Sunday at the KLBF terminal, which may result
in visibilities as low as 1sm. Expect clearing skies on Sunday
afternoon with some passing mid level cloudiness at both
terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler


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