Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290830
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected for today through
Sunday.

- The threat for precipitation will increase tonight over
  northwestern Nebraska with the threat spreading south to the
  remainder of the forecast area Saturday night thorugh Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

H5 analysis this morning had a ridge of high pressure
extending from Nebraska north into western Manitoba. East of the
ridge, closed low pressure was noted over southern portions of
Hudson Bay. A trough extended south of this feature into the
Carolinas. Low pressure was also located off the coast of Washington
State. A strong shortwave was present southwest of this low.
Southeast of the low, weaker embedded shortwaves extended from
central California, east northeast into the central and northern
Rockies. At the surface tonight, an area of low pressure was present
over northeastern Wyoming. A surface trough extended south of the
low into the Texas Panhandle. A stationary front extended east
southeast of the low into northeastern Nebraska, with a cold front
extending southwest of the low into western Colorado. Overnight
skies were partly to mostly cloudy in the east with mostly clear
skies in the west. Temperatures as of 2 AM CT ranged from 37 degrees
at Valentine to 47 degrees at Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A cold front will track trough the forecast area today shifting
winds to the north. Highs today will be cooler, especially over
northern Nebraska as the front clears these areas earlier. For
southwestern Nebraska, highs will reach around 60 which is
around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday`s highs. A combination
of cooler air behind the front and increasing cloud cover this
afternoon adds support to cooler temps for today. Later tonight,
a lead shortwave will exit northern Colorado, approaching the
panhandle this evening. The 00z HRRR and 00Z NAM12 soln tonight,
develop some light precipitation from far SW Nebraska into the
western Sandhills tonight. This was in the inherited forecast
and see no reason to take this out with this package. QPF`s will
be very light with this activity, as forecast soundings
indicate dry conditions below 700 MB. On Saturday, a warm front
will lift from southwestern Nebraska into central and north
central Nebraska. High temperatures will vary widely Saturday
with highs around 40 in the northeast, to around 60 in SW
Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A second upper level disturbance will approach northern
Nebraska and the Black Hills Saturday night. As this shortwave
approaches a frontal boundary, draped over northwestern
Nebraska, light precipitation will commence. Current forecast
trends, have temperatures warm enough to support all rain
Saturday night, but if temps can hover around the lower 30s in
the north, there will be some mix of rain/snow. Given the
temperature profile, any accumulations should be light at best.
The main upper level system will lift into the central Rockies
Sunday night. As mid level lift overspreads central and northern
Nebraska, the threat for precipitation will increase.
Temperatures appear warm enough to support all rain initially
with the best threat for snow over northern portions of the
forecast area, mainly late Sunday night into Monday. As for
accumulations Sunday night into Monday, the latest LREF only has
a 50 percent chance of > 1 inch of snow over Sheridan into
western Cherry county. The latest deterministic GFS soln is much
more "ambitious" with its snow accumulations with the ECMWF
indicating about half of what the GFS is indicating. With little
support from the ensemble forecast, would like to see better
agreement with the deterministic models before I get really
concerned about significant winter impacts across the forecast
area. The system will clear the forecast area Monday night with
dry conditions and warmer temperatures expected Tuesday through
Thursday. By Wednesday, we may see some highs approach the lower
70s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Patchy fog will persist through sunrise across portions of north
central Nebraska, with periods of MVFR visibilities possible.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all area
terminals through tonight. Winds shift from light southerly this
morning to northerly this afternoon, and strengthen. Wind gusts
of 20 to 25 kts are expected through early this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Brown


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