186
FXUS63 KLBF 140806
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures are expected today with readings well into the
90s. Tuesday will be warm, however, timing of a strong cold front
late in the day, could limit highs to the mid to upper 80s over far
northern and northwestern Nebraska.

- A good chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across the area as a
cold front passes through the area. A slight risk (level 2 of 5)
exists across a large portion of the forecast area.

- Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 70s.
  Temperatures will trend back toward more seasonal normals
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

H5 analysis tonight had a broad area of high pressure
located across the southwestern CONUS. A second area of high
pressure was anchored over the northern gulf, south of Louisiana.
Northwest of this high, a trough of low pressure extended from the
western Great Lakes south into central Missouri. Across southwestern
Canada and Washington State to north Dakota and northern Minnesota,
broad west-northwesterly flow was present with a strong shortwave
trough located over the Alaska Panhandle in the vicinity of Juneau.
Earlier tonight, isolated thunderstorms impacted far northeastern
portions of the forecast area. This activity has since traveled
south and dissipated. Skies were clear across western and north
central Nebraska overnight and readings as of 2 AM CDT, ranged from
57 degrees at Gordon to 69 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A strong shortwave,
currently over the Alaska Panhandle, will dive south southeast today
ending up over far southern British Columbia by early evening. This
feature will flatten the ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Lowering
mid level hts. and a weak shortwave will lead to the development of
thunderstorms over eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska late
this afternoon. This activity will ride to the east and northeast
into the evening hours. As this activity tracks east of the
panhandle, it will encounter a more stable, weak shear environment,
and is expected to dissipate before reaching the highway 83 corridor
late in the evening. As for the severe threat, this should remain
largely off to the west of the forecast area, with only a marginal
threat across far northwestern portions of the forecast area.
Inverted V forecast soundings indicate high based storms with the
main severe threat being strong winds. With respect to highs today,
am expecting widespread 90s across the area and utilized a blend of
MET and NBM guidance for highs. Felt, given the degree of moisture
today across the area, that the MAV highs were on the warm side and
reflected the high side of the NBM ensemble spread. With this in
mind, felt the MAV numbers seemed too warm and were not utilized in
this forecast. The shortwave trough over southwestern Canada, will
slowly drop southeast into the Idaho Panhandle and northwestern
Montana. Downstream of this feature, a strong cold front will
approach northwestern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, passing trough the
forecast area Tuesday night. In advance of this feature, afternoon
heating will lead to SB CAPES reaching 2000 to 4000 J/KG generally
east of highway 83. West of this route, SB capes fall of to 1000 to
2000 J/KG. Deep layer shear is adequate for severe storms, Tuesday
afternoon/evening across most of the forecast area with forecast
shear ranging from 25 to 40 KTS. As for the severe threat, large
hail will be the main threat early on with a wind threat thereafter
as a line of storms transitions east. The threat for storms will
continue into the evening hours as the front traverses the area,
encountering a low level jet, which is focused over south central
into central and eastern Nebraska. Activity will then transition
east of the forecast area overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The frontal boundary will track south of the forecast area
Wednesday, ending up over northern Kansas. NOrth of the front,
adequate moisture will pool across southwestern into south
central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. Decent low level shear
will be present across the area Wednesday and could lead to a
strong to severe storm across the area. Highs Wednesday will
struggle to get out of the 70s north of the front and this may
limit the overall severe threat across the forecast area
Wednesday. However, forecast PWATS north of the front approach
2+ inches over southwestern into central Nebraska Wednesday
evening (latest NAM12 soln) which will contribute to a heavy
rain threat. Cool temperatures will carry over into Thursday as
the front remains south of the area. Highs Thursday will be in
the 70s. Temperatures will moderate back into the 80s Friday
into the weekend. ATTM the best chance for rain over that three
day stretch appears to be Friday night into Saturday morning.
Beyond Saturday, precipitation chances are less certain thanks
to weaker forcing and lack of a clear cut surface boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. Skies remain
clear or mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft. The only
major concern will be some stronger southerly winds by late
afternoon into early evening with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Winds
will diminish after sunset returning to below 10 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik