Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151151
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

At 08z...Surface high pressure extended from central North Dakota,
through western South Dakota, western Nebraska, and western Kansas. A
departing winter storm system centered in southern Iowa continues to
advance slowly east. Mainly cloudy skies continued in the east
through the Burwell, Bartlet and O`Neill areas. Clear skies
prevailed across much of western Nebraska. A strip of stratus and
fog was indicated by satellite from western Cherry into Hooker and
McPherson county. Temperatures mainly ranged in the mid teens.
Temperatures at Valentine and North Platte have already fallen below
record lows this morning, while near record lows at Imperial and
Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

There remains the potential for patchy fog development across
portions of the western Sandhills. This forecast by the latest HRRR
and RAP models. Any fog development should "burn off soon after 8 am
CDT. Otherwise, a closed upper low in southern Iowa will move into
northwest Illinois by early this evening. Some cloudiness will
persist in the eastern 4 zones today, while the remainder of western
Nebraska will see sunny skies. A surface ridge axis will remain over
western Nebraska today. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25
mph through late morning across the southeast zones, then diminish
this afternoon. An anomalously cold day today. 850 mb temperatures
rise to only -9C at O`Neill and 1C at Imperial by late afternoon.
Model guidance supports highs of only 30 to 32 degrees at VTN, ANW
and ONL, to the lower 40s parts of southwest Nebraska, and near 45
western Deuel county.

For tonight, record cold will again be possible across portions of
western Nebraska. The record low for April 16th is 17 at LBF
(forecast low is 15), 12 at VTN (forecast low is 10), 14 at Broken
Bow (forecast low is 13). Clear skies this evening should allow for
a rapid cooldown, after midnight light southeast/south winds develop
across the western Sandhills, while light and variable across
central areas. There could be an increase in mid and high clouds
after midnight, so less confidence in record lows being tied or
broken.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

An active pattern continues this week with a couple lows closing off
over the Plains, bringing additional (wintry?) precip chances and
keeping temps seasonably cool.

Monday... Low level flow flips from northerly to southerly and
plenty of sunshine is expected under the sfc high. This promotes
milder temps, but with H85 temps only reaching around 5C, highs will
range from lower 40s north central to near 60F far SW.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Precip potential with this first system is
appearing better for western Nebraska as low level flow gains an
easterly/upslope component (sfc low rides NE/KS border) and broad
isentropic upglide combines with rising dew points. Aloft, the GFS
and ECM are in general agreement with the trough digging across the
Plains, taking on a slight negative tilt, and closing a low off
right over the Sandhills. Meanwhile, a 100kt+ H3 jet streak brushes
SW Neb. The upper low deepens as it heads into the Siouxland,
placing north central Neb in the main deformation zone. Increased
QPF Tuesday night for Holt and Boyd to account for that.
Discrepancies remain in the thermal profile with ECM and NAM
trending cooler, while GFS remains warmer (H85 temps around -5C vs
0C at ONL respectively). The GFS remains more progressive with the
storm track, which would also ultimately limit QPF. Timing favors at
least a brief switch to snow, but uncertainty exists in duration and
impacts of wintry ptypes. Currently, the potential exists for a
couple inches of snow across north central Neb, probably limited to
grassy surfaces as forecast lows are right around 30F. However, rain
combined with temps dropping below freezing could also result in
slick surfaces.

Thursday and beyond... Still watching the closed low progged to
cross the southern/central Plains Friday into Saturday. Despite
having Nebraska on the northern fringe, cold air remains in
question. Attm, most of the precip should fall as rain, but an
extended period of H85 temps at or just below freezing combined with
enhanced precip rates could tip the scale toward snow. Regardless of
ptype, wind will still be an issue late Friday as the sfc low slides
off the CO Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR conditions the next 24 hrs. Mainly sunny skies today across
western Nebraska. AT KLBF and KVTN, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph to
become light and variable this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Roberg



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