Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

In between systems today as upper closed low spinning on satellite
over the Ohio Valley and closed low off Vancouver, with upper
ridge between the two. Numerous waves moving down the backside of
the low to the east along the eastern borders of the Dakotas.
Some patchy fog over north central possible with light winds and
small dew point spreads. Underestimated system yesterday and had
some afternoon trw in Lincoln County. Should have known with
morning stratus and then differential heating in the afternoon
creating some steep lapse rates and the short wave moving across
the Dakotas. Mostly clear skies today and light west to southwest
flow pushing a warm front across the area. Highs in the 50s north
to the 60s south.

Ridge will continue to build east and north tonight with warmer air
aloft. lows mainly in the 30s with some 20s in low lying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Ridging aloft will build north across the central portions of the
country through Friday ahead of a deep long wave trough moving
into the western portion of the country. This will bring a warm up
to the area as H85 temperatures rise into the 8 to 13 C range
beneath the ridge. Highs well into the 60s are expected both
Thursday and Friday across southwest Nebraska with 50s across
northern Nebraska.

The long wave trough will progress toward the area later Friday
into Friday night. This will induce surface cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado, which will help pull some gulf moisture
northward into the region. Surface dew points around 50F are
expected late Friday afternoon across central and southwest
Nebraska, leading to some limited instability. Have continued the
chance for Thunder late Friday afternoon and Friday evening across
southwest Nebraska as the long wave trough crosses the region.
Overall this doesn`t look to be a major precipitation maker for us
with the trough crossing as an open wave, but showers and some
thunder will be possible.

The trough exits the area Saturday followed by cooler
temperatures. By Sunday the next long wave trough moves onto the
west coast, with flow aloft becoming southwesterly Sunday through
Tuesday morning ahead of the trough. Scattered showers are
possible during this time, but widespread organized precipitation
seems unlikely at this point. Eventually the upper trough becomes
closed across the desert southwest midweek, and then progresses
slowly east across the southern plains late in the week. This
could bring some much needed moisture to the parched areas of
western TX and OK. System should remain far enough south that dry
conditions should prevail across our area along with seasonable


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR generally anticipated across all TAF sites through the
forecast period. Though, some latest guidance indicates some fog
or low stratus potential. At this point, the feeling is that any
development will be spotty in nature, so will not include any
mention in the forecast. The most likely locations to see any
potential impacts from fog would be northern Nebraska, including
KVTN. Will continue to monitor. Otherwise winds are expected to be
light and variable for most locations.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jacobs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.