Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
863 FXUS64 KTSA 191709 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The northern limb of a deep-layer moist axis extending north from TS Alberto in the southwest Gulf will shift west over the forecast area today. This, combined with daytime heating, should bring at least slightly higher coverage (PoPs still low overall though) of spotty showers this afternoon across the area. Will keep thunder probs confined to the north and west of Tulsa closer to a weak front/differential heating boundary. The remainder of the forecast was left unchanged. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Near normal temperatures, partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today. Very light showers remain early this morning across Osage and Pawnee counties on the edge of a modest low level jet and may persist into mid morning before dissipating. An increase in cloud cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Surface high pressure will nose into the area overnight, leading to lighter and more easterly winds than the last few nights, which should promote cooler low temperatures for Thursday morning than we have seen of late. During the day Thursday, cloud cover should diminish overall, as the moisture from the tropical system to our south is pushed west of the area by the expanding upper level high to the east. There could be more isolated shower and thunderstorm development on Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast Oklahoma on the edge of the expanding high, and this potential will be added to the NBM offering. For Friday and into the weekend, the temperature and moisture combination takes focus with the high overhead. Temperatures should reach well above normal levels for the weekend and continue into early next week. An increase in moisture remains expected by Sunday, which will make the heat stress potential worse. Expect widespread triple digit heat index values, with a likely need for heat headlines during much of this time frame. Toward early next week, the high remains expected to shift far enough west to allow for some more organized shower and thunderstorm potential. Have adjusted the NBM initialization up a bit to allow for mentionable POPs Sunday night/Monday morning and also Monday night/Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Bottom line upfront...VFR conditions should prevail thru the period. Several different cloud layers are possible at any of the sites, with lower clouds (upper bound MVFR trending toward lower end VFR) appearing from mid-morning thru just after sunset each day, though confidence in a larger area of sub-VFR cigs is not high enough to mention. Chances for shra/tsra too low to mention also. Sfc winds will remain below impactful levels. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0 FSM 91 73 93 72 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 89 71 91 70 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 91 69 91 69 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 90 68 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 90 68 90 67 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 90 72 90 71 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 90 71 90 71 / 10 10 0 0 F10 89 71 89 70 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 85 73 90 71 / 20 10 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30