Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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390 FXUS64 KTSA 190548 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Storms that developed off the dryline this afternoon should dissipate west of the forecast area this evening. By late tonight into Thursday morning, guidance continues to indicate at least low potential for some sunrise surprise high-based showers and storms close to the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa. Will maintain low PoPs in this area. No noticeable changes were made to the going forecast. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Mid level moist axis and influence of passing weak wave will likely support isolated late night into early morning convection which may spread into portions of NE OK. Overall coverage and duration will keep precip chances low with any precip ending by mid / late morning. Otherwise, warm overnight low temps expected and generally 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Hot and humid conditions will develop Thursday afternoon with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the region. A sustained southerly wind will help, however wet bulb globe temps support a notable increase in heat stress conditions area wide. By late afternoon a weak sfc trough will extend through north central OK and isolated to scattered storms could develop and spread eastward through Thursday evening. Considerable uncertainty remains in overall storm coverage, however an unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will support potential for strong multicells or transient supercells. Deeply mixed subcloud layers will favor stronger outflow winds and, once the boundary layer decouples, a steady downtrend in severe potential is likely. Heat impacts continue on Friday with good agreement on high temperatures trending upward and approaching record levels at some locations. Focusing boundaries for storms are expected to remain west and north of the local region through Friday evening. Low chance of storm outflows propagating into NW AR by early Saturday with a corresponding chance of storms, however this scenario remains a low potential. Hot temps continue Saturday while low storm chances remain across NE OK through NW AR in proximity to the stalled remnant frontal zone. As the stronger wave approaches from the west the focus becomes the associated cold front which makes slow but steady progress eastward. A window from late Saturday night through Sunday night appears most likely for the frontal passage across the forecast area. Guidance continues to vary considerably on the coverage of precip associated with the frontal passage, and for now, chances will be kept low. Temperatures will finally begin to cool down Sunday and more so Monday through Tuesday. Some guidance does show considerably cooler temps for early next week and will be a trend to follow. Otherwise the pattern may remain supportive of rain chances into the middle of next week pending the magnitude of the developing central CONUS trough. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are expected overnight across parts of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas. Isolated showers look to be part of this cloud cover. However...with isolated coverage will keep a mention out of TAFs...though KBVO would have the higher of the isolated potential late tonight/early morning Thursday. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast. During the day Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds should become common over most of the CWA. Thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoon into evening hours...with the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will add Prob30 groups for timing at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. By mid evening...much of the thunderstorm development is forecast to weaken with scattered to broken high clouds remaining overnight over the CWA. Winds through the period start out between east and southerly and become breezy out of the south during the day Thursday. These winds should weaken Thursday evening. VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorm activity are currently forecast for the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 99 76 97 / 30 0 0 10 FSM 72 97 75 96 / 20 0 0 10 MLC 73 98 74 97 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 69 100 72 99 / 30 0 10 20 FYV 70 95 71 92 / 20 0 0 10 BYV 70 95 72 92 / 20 10 10 20 MKO 73 96 74 95 / 20 0 0 10 MIO 72 97 74 95 / 20 0 10 20 F10 73 98 73 97 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 71 97 72 95 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20