Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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830 FXUS65 KABQ 162055 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An unseasonably deep upper low over the Inland Northwest and Northern Rockies will result in an uptick in southwest breezes on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front dropping in from the northeast will bring Gulf moisture into the eastern plains on Wednesday with chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with much cooler air. The rain chances continue through at least Friday as Gulf moisture continues to surge into the state from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Drier westerly to southwesterly flow has pushed far into western NM and is mixing out what low-level moisture was left over in the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Dewpoints have falling from near 50F at ABQ into the upper 20s. This has allowed high temperatures to climb from yesterday`s readings and the Heat Advisory for Roswell where the temperatures is 100F this hour is still on track. Drier air mixing to the surface scouring out low-level moisture will relocate the dryline to along the NM/TX border. Hi-res CAMs are still resolving a few discrete thunderstorm cells initiating along this gradient around 4pm to 5pm MDT. SBCAPE of 500 to 1500 J/kg and modest bulk shear of 25 to 30 kts will allow a storm or two to become strong to severe as they track east to northeast into TX this evening. Moisture advances back west into the eastern plains tonight into Monday morning. However, strengthening southwesterly flow through western and central NM will quickly advance the dryline back east to along the TX border. There is another marginal risk for a few discrete thunderstorms developing along the moisture gradient near the TX line to become strong to severe Monday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, temperatures come down a few degrees most areas thanks to lowering pressure heights from a synoptic troughing pattern over the western CONUS nudging further into northwestern and central NM. Winds pick up a notch given the tightening pressure gradient aloft, aided by a deepening 985mb MLSP surface low along the Front Range of the Rockies in CO. Breezy to locally windy conditions with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible, and as high as 45+ mph in the northeastern highlands and plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An unseasonably deep cluster of upper lows over Canada and the PACNW will help create a monsoon like pattern during the extended period. Gulf moisture is forecast to surge northwestward into NM behind a backdoor frontal passage during the latter half of the upcoming week. While these lows phase with one another Monday night into Tuesday over northern Canada, a large rain cooled source region/mesohigh is expected to develop over much of MT and the Northern Plains. This rain cooled air is forecast to get fanned out over the Great Plains on Tuesday, pushing its way into northeast NM by Tuesday night. This frontal passage then sets the stage for deep Gulf moisture to increase from West TX late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Initially, models are indicative of the moisture boundary triggering its own convection as it slide westward through NM during the day Wednesday, but then weak impulses from the flow in between a remnant trough over northern CA and the PACNW and the Bermuda High over the southeast U.S. act to get more convection going Thursday and again Friday. Stability is always the big struggle with these features, but models continue with the idea of a subtropical jet on steroids through the end of June and into early July. It`s this 40-55 kt jet @ 250 mb that will likely triggered rounds of subsequent strong convection Thursday and Friday. .CLIMATE... Monsoon outlook is published but the web site link is not appearing. It`s available to download at: https://weather.gov/media/abq/Brifings/2024MonsoonOutlook.pdf Bottom line up front: This year looks very similar to 2016. Subtropical jet remains too strong for much low level moisture to make it into NM more than briefly (several days) in late June into early July. Monsoon high is forecast to get its feet in place so to speak over/near NM during the second or third week of July. Late July looks active with above average thunderstorm activity remaining through much of the month of August. Southern and eastern New Mexico are favored for above average precipitation in September. Above average temperatures are forecast in July 2024, with near to slightly below average temperatures in August and near average for September. During La Nina, less thunderstorm coverage in the tropical eastern Pacific due to cooler waters results in less air that has to come down in the mid latitudes, and a weaker monsoon high over NM. And yes, New Mexico`s rainy season occurs underneath or near a heat dome of high pressure. As a matter of fact, the monsoon high is a doldrum high emanating from the upward vertical velocity occurring in the tropics off the southern Mexican and Central American coasts. Elevated heat sources in the form of relatively dark mountain slopes (mixed conifer slopes have an albedo ~ 0.80) get thermals and instability going with their much lower albedo compared to the free air. Additionally, the weaker the high, the greater colliding outflow boundaries or mini cold fronts have a chance at creating new storms from their collisions. This is especially important for valley and basin locations that can struggle at times to break the subsidence inversion (temperatures warm with height near 18,000 ft. MSL) that is typical over NM in summer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR prevails through the TAF period with increasing southerly to southwesterly winds area wide this afternoon. Peak gusts of 15 to 25 kts can be expected. The exception will be near isolated thunderstorms developing along a dryline feature banked up N-S along the TX border late today near the 22Z to 03Z timeframe. Frequent lightning, hail, and erratic and severe wind gusts will accompany these thunderstorms as they move into TX. Although not mentioned in the KTCC TAF due to low coverage and confidence of even a vicinity mention, there is a low chance for some impacts from a thunderstorm at KTCC today however unlikely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON... A dry, windy and hotter weather pattern peaks in intensity Monday with critical fire weather conditions favored through the western fire weather zones and the northeastern highlands and plains. While all areas will see minimum humidity fall to near or below 10 percent, wind speeds will be the deciding factor. Drier southwesterly flow aloft will advance further through the eastern plains Monday afternoon, bringing stronger wind speeds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible for mid to higher elevation areas including the western fire zones bordering AZ. The strongest wind gusts of 45+ mph will focus through the Northeast Highlands fire zone. While fuel receptivity is a question for northeastern NM given recent rainfall, ERCs are a tad higher further west in the highlands along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains compared to the plains closer to OK/TX. The Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the western fire zones along the AZ border and expanded to the northeast highlands as a result. Elevated to locally critical fire weather remains Tuesday as dry southwesterly flow remains most areas. Wind speeds are forecast to come down a notch however. A significant change to the weather pattern arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the form of a potent backdoor front pushing through northeastern NM, meeting up with a surge of low- level Gulf moisture from west TX. This will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity to the eastern half of the forecast area, staying dry and breezy along and west of the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon convection along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and evening will act to push this moisture further west to the AZ border by Thursday and Friday. This will bring an end to any critical fire weather concerns areawide for the end of next week. Chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity will go up markedly however. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 93 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 88 43 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 46 89 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 90 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 88 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 56 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 46 90 45 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 61 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 82 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 58 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 81 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 79 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 49 87 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 51 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 58 93 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 96 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 98 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 57 98 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 97 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 55 98 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 64 98 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 64 101 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 61 90 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 57 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 92 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 88 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 57 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 95 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 57 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 56 92 53 90 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 56 93 55 92 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 66 95 66 94 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 61 92 59 90 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 98 / 5 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 63 96 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 100 68 97 / 5 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 68 99 67 96 / 20 20 20 5 Portales........................ 68 100 68 98 / 20 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 67 100 66 98 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 71 106 70 104 / 0 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 62 100 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 60 99 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ101-105-109. Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...24