214
FXUS63 KIWX 221828
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
228 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain this afternoon and evening will taper off tonight.

- Additional rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A surface low centered over southern Lake Michigan combined with
lift associated with a weak from and dewpoints rising to around
70 is causing moderate rain showers to move across the area this
afternoon. There may be a few embeded thunderstorms, but severe
weather is not expected due to limited instability and only
marginal shear. A cold front will move through later tonight and
showers will taper off from west to east, leaving Monday dry
and much cooler. High temperatures will only be in the low 70s.
However, a shortwave will move up from the southwest on Monday
night, bringing more rain for Tuesday, with lingering showers
possible on Wednesday.

By Thursday, the region will again be stuck between low pressure
system and high pressure will build back in. Temperatures will
warm, although it will not be as hot as last week, with highs
confined mainly to the upper 70s or low 80s. There is some
uncertainty though as to whether or not we will be dry. This
will depend on the track of a cutoff low to the south and if any
shortwaves rotate far enough north to bring convection into the
area. The best chances for more rain will probably be next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Continued moist advection ewd of low pressure advancing out IL
will yield a gradual deterioration in flight conditions this
period. Better forcing timed with greatest moisture flux arises
late day with a period of shra expected before post frontal flow
develops this evening. This will bring about widespread
IFR/stratus overnight extending into Mon am.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM CDT this evening through
     Monday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...T