162
FXUS64 KTSA 222347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Latest regional surface analysis shows the well-advertised cold
front beginning to move into the forecast area from the northwest.
Winds across northeast OK have already turned northerly, courtesy
of an outflow boundary that pushed through this morning. KINX
radar imagery shows a few isolated showers/storms have formed
along this outflow boundary in far eastern OK and northwest AR.
However, the main concentration of thunderstorm activity so far
has been confined closer to and just ahead of the frontal boundary
across central/western OK.

Visible satellite trends and SPC Mesoscale Analysis both show
convective inhibition has been mostly depleted and instability
increasing, especially near and ahead of that outflow boundary
where more sun is shining at the moment. The front will gradually
continue to advance southeastward through the day and CAM guidance
suggests additional thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the front through the afternoon. Sufficient instability, moisture,
lift, and wind shear will be in place for a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms through at least sunset this
evening. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should sharply limit the
severe potential, though cannot rule out a strong storm or two
after sunset. Locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and small
hail (< 1 inch) will be the primary hazards with any organized
thunderstorms. Additionally, PWATs have increased above 1.5 inches
(above the 90th percentile for this time of the year) across much
of eastern OK and northwest AR. As such, moderate to heavy rain,
with pockets of very heavy rain at times, may cause localized
flooding to occur through the overnight hours and into Monday
morning. Because steering flow will be somewhat parallel to the
frontal boundary, there is potential for training storms that may
add to the localized flooding threat. Some of the heaviest rain
(1 to 1.5 inches, locally high amounts) is expected to fall along
and north of the I-40 corridor between this afternoon through
Monday morning.

Significantly cooler temperatures will be felt behind the frontal
boundary, especially after sunset this evening. The front will
slowly and gradually push east of the forecast area late tonight
or by the early morning hours Monday. Thick cloud cover and rain
chances will maintain low temperatures in the upper 50s and lower
60s overnight tonight behind the front, with low temperatures
dropping into the mid-upper 60s and lower 70s across southeast OK
and west-central AR.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation
chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with
chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover
will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with
widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier
weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s
and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average.
Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below
seasonal average through the long term.

Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level
trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern
Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely
produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to
timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global
models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models
also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by
midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the
northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system
may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially
may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture,
affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week
and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight as a cold
front, currently located just north of I-44 continues to slowly
push south tonight. Several rounds over rain with embedded thunderstorms
are expected overnight through Monday morning before the heavier
precipitation shifts east of NW AR terminals around noon. Ceiling
will continue to fall behind front with IFR conditions likely
with FROPA across NE OK spreading into SE OK late tonight. Models
hint a weak surface low developing along frontal boundary across
NW AR Monday morning. Ceiling heights / visibilities will likely
be erratic at those terminals before lower clouds/IFR conditions
spread into the region Monday afternoon on backside of departing
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  72  57  79 /  90  60  10  10
FSM   72  80  62  81 /  60  80  20  10
MLC   64  75  57  83 /  70  80  10  10
BVO   58  71  53  80 /  70  40   0  10
FYV   65  75  58  76 /  70  80  20  10
BYV   66  75  60  76 /  70  80  40  10
MKO   64  72  57  79 /  80  80  10  10
MIO   61  70  57  76 /  80  70  10  10
F10   61  72  55  81 /  90  70  10  10
HHW   69  80  60  86 /  40  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12