Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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562 FXUS61 KBUF 180635 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 235 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather for the foreseeable future. Next chance for some much needed rain may not come until early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For those doing some late-night moon gazing, just some mainly thin upper level cirrus overhead for the remainder of the overnight, which is allowing for fairly good viewing. Patches of thicker cirrus will be present at times the further south you head toward the NY/PA line, which may make for a more hazy appearance to the moon, or possibly even obscured at times. Otherwise, dry weather prevails owed to high pressure over the region. Lows will eventually bottom out in the 50s for most spots. A large upper level storm system centered over the western Carolinas tonight will continue to direct a wealth of high level clouds across our region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Even so, a fairly stout ridge will keep the area precipitation free through this period and mild. Highs Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the vast majority of the region. These temperatures are more typical for July or early August. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Coastal low pressure will dance off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday through Friday night. A mid-level ridge will be over the eastern Great Lakes region while deep moisture remains well east of the forecast area. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to southwest Friday through Friday night. Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area. Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid- West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend down but be above normal through the Long Term period. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR flight conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period, with a couple late night through mid morning exceptions. Patchy areas of radiation fog along with typical valley fog is expected later tonight into the first part of Wednesday morning. This will mainly be across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and possibly at KART once again as a light, but cool/moist drainage flow advects southwest down the Saint Lawrence valley. Already some MVFR VSBYs being observed `upstream` at KOGS and KMSS, which typically precedes restrictions at the KART terminal. Per usual however with these scenarios, confidence in this actually directly impacting the KJHW or KART airfield is not that high due to the patchy nature of the fog and a weak, sometimes variable low level wind flow. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient will promote light winds, under 10 knots, and very little wave action through the rest of this week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JM/RSH SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...JM MARINE...AR