813
FXUS63 KLBF 290245
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
945 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening
  west of Highway 83. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across
  the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska.

- An active weather pattern continues Thursday and Friday, then
  into the weekend with a continued potential for thunderstorms
  and locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures mainly in the lower 70s Thursday and Friday,
  warming up into the 80s Saturday through next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Tonight, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will advance
into portions of the Great Basin as a transitory upper ridge axis
moves into western Nebraska. A southeast wind will develop tonight
with moisture increasing below 650mb. Thunderstorms developing from
eastern Colorado into Western Kansas this evening may trigger a
northward outflow with isolated showers or thunderstorms across
portions of southwest Nebraska. A few of the CAMs show this, and
have introduced a slight chance across Chase, Hayes and Frontier
County. Confidence too to to mention further north to near I80. Lows
tonight from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday/Wednesday night, the upper-level trough will cross the
Great Basin with surface low pressure deepening across Wyoming
and Colorado, as surface high pressure persists across the Great
Lakes region. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up
across western and north central Nebraska. Southerly winds will
increase Wednesday morning, with frequent gust of 25 to 30 mph
during the afternoon. Expect considerable cumulus development as
low level moisture increases. Highs to reach the upper 70 to
near 80. Southerly low- level flow will bring PWAT values to
near an inch by late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates near
8C/km and MLCAPEs near 1000- 1500J/kg will be present ahead of
a lead disturbance coming of the Front Range. Deep layer shear
will be on the weaker side near 30kts. The environment will be
more conducive for locally strong to severe surface gusts,
although large hail will also be possible with the strongest
storms. The area of concern is for areas primarily along and
west of Highway 83. Storms will initiate over eastern Wyoming
and the western Nebraska Panhandle late Wednesday afternoon,
eventually congealing into a line, most likely across the
southeast Panhandle across west central and southwest Nebraska
per the majority of 12Z CAMs. Storms are expected to weaken
overnight across the east. Excessive rainfall is possible,
across the southeast Panhandle into southwest Nebraska as the
low level jet maintains redevelopment.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

On Thursday, the main upper trough axis will reach western
Nebraska. A weak cold front is also expected to dissipate as
surface low pressure deepens further south over northeastern
New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to be
likely to categorical near and east of Highway 83, to chance
POPs to the west. The severe threat will shift further south of
the area where the main axis of instability will reside. Strong
to briefly severe storms are still possible across far southwest
Nebraska. Cooler highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

With the upper-level trough persisting across the Northern Plains
and Rockies, the potential for at least a few strong storms and
locally heavy rainfall will exists Friday through Sunday. Highs will
warm well into the 80s by Sunday and persist into Monday and
Tuesday. Drier conditions Monday and Tuesday, ahead of an upper
trough approaching the Northern Plains by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through 00Z Thursday. South to southeast winds
will increase Wednesday morning and become gusty during the
afternoon. A line of showers/thunderstorms will cross the area
Wednesday evening. Gusty winds will be the main concern as the
line passes through.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor