659
FXUS63 KDDC 240556
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible late today and early tonight (50-70%).
  Some storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and
  isolated strong gusty winds. The heavy rainfall may result in
  minor water issues in some areas.

- Another chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) will be possible late
  Tuesday, mainly across west central and north central Kansas.
  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
  hazards from these storms.

- For the remainder of the work week there will be a chance for
  thunderstorms almost each evening and overnight minimum
  temperatures in the 70s by mid week will drive heat risk into
  the elevated category (2 of 4) east of highway 283.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Surface frontal/zone of near surface convergence and vorticity
will be somewhere close to an Elkhart - eastern Finney county -
Hays line by early afternoon through late afternoon as the
frontal boundary is not a fast moving one. Given the steep low
level lapse rates, moderately high LFCs/LCL in the initiation
environment, a brief period of landspout activity cannot be
ruled our before storms grow upscale to the east in a more rich
moisture environment enhancing the wind/hail threat. The ARW
which has been known to over-predict convection was far more
robust with coverage of multi-cell clusters later this afternoon
and evening than was the HRRR; which modeled compact single
cell strong to severe outflows through early evening hours
(through 7 pm) on the overnight runs. The HRRR also showed
higher terrain convection over NE NM and SE CO spreading into
the warm sector ahead of the surface front after 00z near
Elkhart - expanding eastward in a multicell cluster with hail
and wind potential through the balance of the later evening.
These models are appearing to converge a bit in solutions from
the immediate previous runs, favoring convection unzipping right
along the boundary and slowly moving east. Residual rain and
lighting might be ongoing though the overnight especially in the
post frontal zone or roughly the northwest one half of the area
(NW of a Meade to Larned line).

In addition to the severe risk, the excessive rain outlook is
in the slight category (2 of 4) for the risks of rapid onset
flooding. As mentioned in the WPCs discussion, the possibility
of the slight risk are being underdone is based on the more
robust CAMS overnight but at this time is limited to the
counties east of highway 23. A robust 850-500 mb layer of
moisture advection overlays a PWAT field ranging from 1.4 to
about 1.8 inches from Garden City to the easternmost counties...
and even exceed one inch as far west as the Colorado state line.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches locally are modeled by the
HRRR, without any appreciable signal of storm cell training
which is a good thing given the above normal soil moisture on
the short and long term over much of the CWA.

The proximity of the surface cold frontal boundary and
potential for evening and overnight rains will play a part in
moderating the temperatures a for the early part of the week.
However this airmass gets heated back up with the return to
southerly and downsloping surface winds by Wednesday and onward
leading to increasing daytime highs as well as higher nighttime
lows in the 70s. The result is a slight increasing heat risk
into the elevated category (level 2 of 4).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered thunderstorms continue across southwest Kansas as of
05z this Tuesday morning. This convection was occurring ahead
of an upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas based
on water vapor and upper air analysis. Based on the latest short
models this overnight convection will begin to taper off after
09z as the upper level trough moves east/northeast. VFR ceilings
in the 4000 to 7000ft AGL at 05z this morning will improve to
10000ft AGL or higher by daybreak. Southerly winds at 10 to 15
knots will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range and become
gusty at times after 15z Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert