Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141047
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

High winds will continue through much of the day as the surface
to 500mb low moves across northern Kansas into northwest Missouri.
Boundary layer mean winds across western Kansas are forecast to
range from 40 to 45 knots and 850mb winds will be at or greater
than 50 knots through 21z Saturday. Wind gusts as high as 65 mph
still look possible across western Kansas through the mid
afternoon as sustained northwest winds howl at 30 to 40 mph.

Based on what was observed yesterday morning from the models the
expected area of steadier and heavier snowfall during the
overnight period ended up being further north and northwest. This
resulted in much less snowfall across north central Kansas during
the first half of the night. The latest RAP, NMM, ARW, and to a
slightly lesser extent NAM still indicating that there will be an
area of steadier light snow crossing north central Kansas between
9z and 18z Saturday based on the 1-3km/700mb
moisture/frontogenesis. This period of steadier light snowfall
could still produce an inch or possibly even two inches of new
snow in a few locations of Ellis and Trego counties. Given this
expected snowfall and strong winds Blizzard or near Blizzard
conditions may still occur along the I-70 corridor. Confidence
was beginning to decrease on this however and will continue to
monitor the latest models early this morning and adjust if
needed. Even if confidence improves enough to cancel the blizzard
warning today there will still be a period of reduced visibility
early this morning due to blowing snow that will cause some
travel issues.

Strong winds and chance for snow will decrease/taper off from
west to east during the afternoon as an upper level ridge begins
to cross the western Rockies, and a surface highs starts to drop
south into western Kansas. Highs today still look on track with
highs only in the 30s where skies will be cloudy all day, mainly
east of Dodge City. West of Dodge City where more afternoon sun is
expected highs will be in the 40s.

Tonight the surface high will build into western Kansas and where
the surface ridge axis will be located early Sunday morning is
where the lighter winds will be located. Light winds and clear
skies will result in a cold night with lows mainly in the teens
with a few lower 20s possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Models this morning still showing a nice warm up from Sunday
through the first part of the work week as an upper ridge slides
east out into the west central highs plains and improving westerly
downslope flow develop. Temperatures rebounding quickly back into
the 80s for portions of western Kansas on Monday still looks on
track with 80 to 85 degree highs still appearing reasonable for
much of western Kansas on Tuesday. As temperatures warm the dry
and breezy conditions will also be returning to western Kansas.
This will bring an increase in fire weather risk levels to western
Kansas early next week. Elevated to Critical fire danger levels
will be possible for portions of western Kansas on Monday and
Tuesday.

Mid week a quick moving upper level trough/low will cross the
northern and central Plains. As it does the next cold front will
cross western Kansas. At this time this frontal passage will be a
dry and little cold air is expected to return to western Kansas
behind this front Wednesday or Thursday. Still look for highs to
fall out of the 70 and 80s and back into the 60s mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Strong northwest winds at around 30 knots can be expected through
much of the day today. Wind Gusts of around 50 knots can also be
expected from time to time at the DDC, GCK, HYS, and LBL TAF
sites, especially from 12z to 18z Saturday. Along with these
strong gusty winds MVFR ceilings are expected to linger across
western Kansas along with some scattered light snow. Hays will
have the best chance for a period of steadier snowfall early this
morning. The combination of this steadier snowfall and strong
winds will result in the visibility in the HAYS area falling to
less than one half mile due to blowing snow at times between 09z
and 18z Saturday. After 21z the skies will begin to clear from
west to east and the strong northwest will begin to slowly
decrease as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  21  56  28 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  59  29 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  47  21  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  18  47  21 /  70  10   0   0
P28  44  23  55  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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