


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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564 FXUS63 KGLD 061939 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 139 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms remain possible during the late afternoon and evening hours today and Monday. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Update: Morning convection in northern Nebraska has persisted and progressed southeast into central Nebraska early this afternoon. At 1 pm MDT, outflow associated with this convection was located ~20 miles south of I-80 (south of a line from North Platte to Lexington and Kearney).. and was making slow southward progress toward Red Willow/ Hitchcock counties. If convection continues to develop southward along the aforementioned outflow, it would alter environmental conditions over portions of southwest Nebraska.. the impact of which could be detrimental or beneficial to severe weather potential later this evening. The Tri-State area remains situated in a weak forcing regime, on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over northern Mexico and the Southern Plains), in W to WSW flow aloft. Weak lower tropospheric flow (<= 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb) persists.. with stronger flow confined to the 200-300 mb level (~25-35 KFT AGL). Another complex, challenging convective forecast. Complicating factors include, but are not limited to: lingering mesoscale features from antecedent convection (e.g. a prominent MCV near Lamar, CO at 15 UTC) and ongoing convection with a remnant MCS in northern Nebraska (between Gordon/KGRN and Valentine/KVTN at 15 UTC). Weak, ill- defined upper level forcing persists nearby and upstream/west of the Goodland county warning area (i.e. no appreciable or readily apparent features in WV imagery or SPC mesoanalysis data at 15 UTC). Recent 12Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest a scenario roughly similar (more robust, perhaps) to what was observed yesterday, i.e. scattered convection develops along portions of the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide at peak heating and activity grows upscale into clusters and progresses/propagates E-ESE into the Goodland county warning area during the late afternoon and evening (~23-06 UTC, beginning ~5 pm MDT, ending ~12 am MDT). If this is the case, damaging winds would likely be the primary hazard. Environmental conditions appear roughly analogous to yesterday.. e.g. the presence of an elevated mixed layer, seasonably strong DCAPE, marginal-moderate diurnal destabilization (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective deep layer shear of similar magnitude (~25-35 knots). 15 UTC observational data and mesoanalysis trends suggest that outflow emanating from ongoing convection /remnant MCS/ in northern Nebraska may stall near, or just north, of the I-80 corridor in western Nebraska this afternoon, where moisture pooling in vicinity of the stalled convergence zone may facilitate moderate to strong destabilization (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE).. and a more robust, organized damaging wind potential may exist. With this in mind, locations along and north of Highway 36 (or along and north of a line from Idalia to St. Francis, Atwood, Oberlin and Norton) appear to be most at-risk for severe weather late this afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Mon: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the `big picture`, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain in a weak forcing regime on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico) in WSW flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution in the Goodland county warning area may, once again, be influenced (directly or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent convection. Bottom line, low confidence persists with regard to severe weather specifics (convective mode, coverage, evolution).. similar to the past few days. Tue-Sun: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge, at or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1035 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Aside from a potential for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening (~02-06Z Mon), VFR conditions and light winds will otherwise prevail. Surface wind gusts at or above 50 knots are possible with any storms. Gusty/erratic winds are also possible in vicinity of any decaying showers/storms late this evening and overnight. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent