Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151028
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Indiana will continue to move slowly east and
is expected to pass near Lake Erie this evening. A stationary
front across central Ohio will move northward as a warm front
today as the low tracks across the region. An upper level trough
will then remain in place across the region through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures have warmed into the middle 30s at most locations
across NE OH and NW PA so have removed the mention of freezing
rain. The winter weather headline over Erie County has also
been cancelled.

There still will be a decrease in the rainfall coverage late
morning into the afternoon but it may need up just being a
period of drizzle or very light rain. Thunder potential looks as
if it is decreasing which would lessen any flooding threat.
However will continue with a chance of thunder mention in the
grids for now.

Previous Discussion...
Stationary front over central Ohio will move back to the north
as a warm front today as low pressure moves toward Lake Erie.
This low will drag a cold front across the region this evening.

Until the warm front lifts northward this morning we will have
slight worries about the precipitation type. This concern will
mainly be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. It will be a brief
problem with a few locations seeing a light glaze on elevated
objects. Northern Erie County PA is the only place we will go
with an advisory. Expect to see temperatures warm by sunrise.
Elsewhere a swath of rain will cross the region this morning
with the models hinting at a lull in the coverage of the showers
late morning into the afternoon. Fortunately we will not see
any thunder with this morning round of showers with rainfall
rates remaining under two tenths of an inch per hour. This
should not be heavy enough rainfall to produce any widespread
flooding. We will need to monitor the chance of thunder for the
afternoon/evening as the cold front moves across the area. If we
can get the higher rainfall rates with thunderstorms we may
need to be concerned about flooding. If this does occur it would
be across the eastern half of the county warning area. For now
we are not confident enough to go with a flood watch.

Temperatures will warm quickly at most locations through the
morning with highs this afternoon ranging from the mid 40s
across NW OH to the upper 60s for much of the east. Colder air
arrives tonight with most areas dipping into the 30s. Colder
air aloft will arrive on Monday with some snow mixing with the
rain, especially west of I-71.

Winds will be variable in direction with all the boundaries
moving across the area. Easterly winds will become southerly
for most of the area by afternoon. The exception may be across
NW OH around Toledo where an easterly wind may persist until the
low passes this afternoon. We will need to monitor the
southeasterly downsloping winds near Erie, Pa this evening. This
wind direction favors deeper mixing of stronger winds to the
surface. A few gusts around 45 mph will be possible. Westerly
winds arrive with cooler air this evening and persist into
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold cyclonic flow will be ongoing at the start of the period with
low pressure over the central Lakes.  Some lake effect is likely
Monday night into Tuesday.  850 mb temps will get as cold as neg 8
so most of the precip will fall as snow.  Only slight accums are
expected outside of the snowbelt with an inch or two possible on the
higher terrain of NW PA.  No accumulation is expected during the
daylight hours.  It will finally dry out Tuesday night as high
pressure briefly builds over the region.  The next in a series of
strong low pressure systems will move over the western lakes on
Wednesday.  A warm front from this low will lift north across the
local area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Precip chances will
increase as that occurs.  By daybreak Thursday the surface low will
be someplace near Lake Erie.  After a cool Tuesday readings will get
back close to normal for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold air advection will be ongoing at the start of the period with
showers likely on Thursday.  High pressure over the western lakes
Thursday night and Friday will slowly dry things out for the end of
the workweek. Depending on which model you believe the high may
linger over the region Saturday which will keep it dry.  Will go
with that scenario.  Highs Thursday and Friday will be at least 10
degrees below normal.  Things will warm up slightly for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Stationary boundary located over central Ohio will gradually
move northward as a warm front today. The location of this
boundary will play a significant role in wind directions.
However most inland locations should see southeast to south
winds by early afternoon. Showers will continue over the region
through the remainder of the morning then there may be a brief
lull as the next area of low pressure approaches this
afternoon/evening. IFR conditions are expected with the showers
through mid morning. There should be a slight rise in the
ceilings but not convinced that we will see ceilings improve
above MVFR this afternoon. A cold front will drift eastward
across the area Sunday afternoon into the evening with showers
expected along and ahead of it. There may be some thunder near
and ahead of this boundary but if it does occur it will be near
and east of I-71.

Winds will shift to the west this evening in the wake of the
cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions Monday continuing across far
northeast OH/nw PA through Tuesday. Non-VFR possible again
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to the lake headlines today.  The strongest winds will
continue across the central portion of the lake where there are no
sensors.  Water levels remain very high in the western basin and
will make no changes to the coastal flood warning.  Speeds will
begin to diminish tonight as the surface low pulls off to the east
and winds become westerly.  Moderate westerly flow will then
continue through Tuesday.  A prolonged period of small craft
advisories is likely. On Wednesday the flow will take on an easterly
component ahead of the warm front that will move through late in the
day.  Winds will be back to the west by daybreak Thursday as low
pressure moves to the east of the lake.  West to northwest winds
will then continue through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ003-007>009.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Kubina



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