234
FXUS61 KCLE 161711
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
111 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build over the area today before
another low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and
Saturday. Brief high pressure builds in on Sunday before the
active pattern returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12:40 PM Update...
Increased PoPs so that most of the region as at least 60-70%
PoPs late tonight through Friday morning. Most hi-res model
guidance has showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Previous Discussion...
Patchy fog/low stratus has begun to develop over the far eastern
parts of the CWA, particularly in areas that received rainfall
on Wednesday. Visibilities in the areas that receive fog will
quickly be reduced so motorists should use caution, especially
during the morning commute. After sunrise, the fog should
quickly dissipate by mid-morning. High pressure today will allow
for a break in precipitation across the area, although the only
peaks of sunshine will likely be across the western counties
where the airmass is drier. Tonight, rain chances will again
increase from west to east as a short wave pushes northeast.
Overall chance of thunder remains small overnight. However on
Friday, the area becomes better situated under the upper level
jet and with diurnal instability expect a higher chance of
showers and thunder along and east of I71. Not expecting
anything severe, but some showers may have efficient rainfall
rates which may lead to isolated nuisance flooding.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s except along the
lakeshore where a lake breeze will keep temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight lows will drop into the upper 50s
to low 60s. Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The rain forecast for Friday evening is generally a downward trend
from the daytime hours on Friday, as the upper trough that will
support Friday`s rain/storm chances will lift northeast out of the
area. However, another upper trough will move toward the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys for Friday night into Saturday and support a weak
low through that region. Therefore, have PoPs increasing as you move
south through the forecast area with a slight uptick on Saturday
afternoon as the trough axis moves across the region. Upper ridging,
along with a surface high building from the northeast, will enter
the region for Saturday night into Sunday and will support a dry
forecast through the end of the period. Temperatures will be a touch
above normal through the weekend, but would likely stay closer to
normal on Saturday where rain occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast area will be in the warm sector of a system to start
next week. A loop of upper ridging across the region will keep
things dry to start. A minor shortwave will ripple into the area on
Monday night but will lose its energy as it reaches into the
forecast area. Have some lower PoPs for Monday night into the first
bit of Tuesday, but suspect that this will become an increasingly
dry forecast with the stronger ridge over the region. For Tuesday
into Wednesday, a stronger trough will emerge into the central CONUS
and extend east toward the forecast area. This feature should break
down the upper ridge over the region and allow for some rain chances
Tuesday afternoon through the end of the long term period on
Wednesday night. Temperatures through the period appear above normal
for mid-to-late may in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is observed areawide, though isolated MVFR ceilings may be
possible for next hour or two in parts of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Rain showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms moves in from the west tonight, moving east across
the area through Friday morning. This will likely produce at
least MVFR visibilities and ceilings areawide with pockets of
IFR conditions. Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected
during the afternoon on Friday.

Winds will generally be light and variable, except for KCLE and
KERI when a lake breeze develops this afternoon and briefly
increase winds to 5-10 knots from the north-northeast. South to
southwest winds of 7-9 knots develops Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the region will support northeast flow on the
lake today. Flow across the area will remain light enough to prevent
any marine weather concerns, but the northeast flow will take
advantage of the long axis of the lake and there will be some two
footers for the central basin. A warm front will cross the lake
tonight and allow for southeast flow to take over the lake through
Friday night. A weak system will move through the Ohio Valley on
Saturday, as high pressure also builds from the northeast. This will
allow for northeast flow to return for Saturday and Sunday. Flow
should again remain light to prohibit any marine weather concerns.
Another warm front will cross the lake by Monday and southeast flow
will return again to the basin early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic