Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160804

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
304 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

A strong upper level shortwave will move eastward into the Plains
today. Warm and moist advection ahead of the wave is resulting in
showers and thunderstorms developing over north central to
northeastern KS. This line of showers and storms will move through
the region through the morning hours. The dry slot associated with
the upper low should spread east later in the morning and the
afternoon. But while this mid to upper level feature moves overhead,
the surface boundaries will remain. Models show the southwestern
portions of the forecast area moving into a narrow warm sector with
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 50s. This is along and
south of the warm front and ahead of the dry line. These boundaries
converge/occlude in east central KS and then trail westward back to
the surface low by the afternoon. This will occur with the upper low
moving overhead. The thermal profile changes dramatically across the
warm front and with the cold air aloft moving in associated with the
upper low, a narrow corridor of 500+ J/kg of CAPE develops. Shear
becomes strong overtop this warm sector and there is strong turning
with height in the low levels of the atmosphere. This turning yields
0-1km helicity values exceeding 200 m^2/s^2. With all this said,
this looks like a favorable scenario for possible 500mb low
tornadoes. At the very least, the combination of instability and
strong shear would support a window for thunderstorms to produce
hail this afternoon. Severe weather potential looks greatest from
I-70 southward and along and west of I- 49, basically the
southwestern most portions of the forecast area, and mainly early
this afternoon as instability quickly erodes with the loss of
daytime heating and the eastward progression of the now modified

This system will track to the east and leave the area with quiet and
cooler weather for the weekend. Another strong upper wave and
associated surface low will move into the Plains Sunday night into
Monday. This will bring another chance for rain across the area.
Models are in good agreement taking the surface low south of the
area and spreading much needed moderate rainfall north of the low
across the area. In the wake of this system, quiet and cool weather
will prevail as well. This will likely last through the middle of
the week until temperatures return back to the 60s by Thursday into


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

VFR conditions initially across the area are expected to
deteriorate later this morning as moisture streams northward ahead
of a fairly strong upper storm system and associated surface low.
This may spread some showers over the in the next few hours and
through the morning hours. There may even be a few thunderstorms,
although at this point the coverage of showers looks more
widespread. Conditions are expected to become IFR due to low
ceilings late this morning and persist into the afternoon hours.
It then looks like a dry slot will move over much of the area
resulting in a scattering out of clouds. How far north this gets
into northern MO is a little uncertain and it`s possible the dry
slot misses STJ or even MCI before low clouds wrap back into the
area as the low passes by.




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