Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130434

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 304 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2018

Low clouds steadily pushed south of the forecast area during the
early afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to quickly recover
into the middle 40s to near 50. Relatively tranquil and similar
conditions can be expected tonight into Tuesday. Mostly clear
skies will be the rule with lows tonight in the middle to upper
20s and highs Tuesday in the 40s to near 50.

Surface high pressure slides off to the southeast and settles in
the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, with a lee trough
developing across the High Plains. This will result in a
strengthening pressure gradient, providing gusty southerly winds
and warming temperatures for the forecast area. Additionally, low-
level moisture will be slow to return, with afternoon mixing
producing minimum relative humidity values falling into the 20-30
percent range. This spells an increasing fire weather concern,
with high to very high fire danger for Wednesday afternoon.

A slightly more active weekend is possible; however, long-range
model solutions continue to vary wildly and lend very little
confidence to any one solution. At this time, precipitation looks
possible from Thursday night through Friday, and again Sunday
through early next week, but a washout is certainly not expected
and most periods will be dry. The greatest risk for severe weather
currently looks to reside south of the area, where the best combo
of instability and dynamics will be in place. Temperatures will be
generally above normal, but will depend on the timing and
incidence of cloud cover and potential precipitation.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only high
level clouds moving through. Winds will be steady from the north
up to 10 kts through the forecast as well.




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